The high 88.5% implied probability for "No" on a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission combined license (COL) for a new nuclear reactor by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the sequential and technically rigorous nature of licensing, even after recent streamlining. While the NRC issued its first advanced reactor construction permit to TerraPower's Natrium project in March 2026 and finalized the risk-informed Part 53 framework to target 18-month reviews, no full COL authorizing both construction and commercial operation of an entirely new design has been granted as of late August. DOE-authorized test reactors reached criticality under separate pathways, but these bypass standard NRC commercial licensing. Ongoing reviews for designs like X-energy's Xe-100 and Oklo's Aurora face remaining safety evaluations, hearings, and first-of-a-kind inspections that traders view as unlikely to conclude in the remaining months.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСША выдадут лицензию на новый ядерный реактор в 2026 году?
США выдадут лицензию на новый ядерный реактор в 2026 году?
Да
12% вероятность
$25,246 Объем
$25,246 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
12% вероятность
$25,246 Объем
$25,246 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The high 88.5% implied probability for "No" on a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission combined license (COL) for a new nuclear reactor by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the sequential and technically rigorous nature of licensing, even after recent streamlining. While the NRC issued its first advanced reactor construction permit to TerraPower's Natrium project in March 2026 and finalized the risk-informed Part 53 framework to target 18-month reviews, no full COL authorizing both construction and commercial operation of an entirely new design has been granted as of late August. DOE-authorized test reactors reached criticality under separate pathways, but these bypass standard NRC commercial licensing. Ongoing reviews for designs like X-energy's Xe-100 and Oklo's Aurora face remaining safety evaluations, hearings, and first-of-a-kind inspections that traders view as unlikely to conclude in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Объем
$25,246Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The high 88.5% implied probability for "No" on a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission combined license (COL) for a new nuclear reactor by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the sequential and technically rigorous nature of licensing, even after recent streamlining. While the NRC issued its first advanced reactor construction permit to TerraPower's Natrium project in March 2026 and finalized the risk-informed Part 53 framework to target 18-month reviews, no full COL authorizing both construction and commercial operation of an entirely new design has been granted as of late August. DOE-authorized test reactors reached criticality under separate pathways, but these bypass standard NRC commercial licensing. Ongoing reviews for designs like X-energy's Xe-100 and Oklo's Aurora face remaining safety evaluations, hearings, and first-of-a-kind inspections that traders view as unlikely to conclude in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$25,246Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high 88.5% implied probability for "No" on a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission combined license (COL) for a new nuclear reactor by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the sequential and technically rigorous nature of licensing, even after recent streamlining. While the NRC issued its first advanced reactor construction permit to TerraPower's Natrium project in March 2026 and finalized the risk-informed Part 53 framework to target 18-month reviews, no full COL authorizing both construction and commercial operation of an entirely new design has been granted as of late August. DOE-authorized test reactors reached criticality under separate pathways, but these bypass standard NRC commercial licensing. Ongoing reviews for designs like X-energy's Xe-100 and Oklo's Aurora face remaining safety evaluations, hearings, and first-of-a-kind inspections that traders view as unlikely to conclude in the remaining months.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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