Trader consensus on the 2026 U.S. trade deficit clusters tightly between 800 billion and 1 trillion dollars, reflecting the 901 billion outcome recorded for 2025 despite broad tariff expansions. Persistent macroeconomic drivers, including the gap between domestic saving and investment, continue to anchor the balance near recent levels even as goods imports have been redirected from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners. Recent monthly data through March 2026 show deficits holding in the 55-70 billion range, with export gains in energy and agriculture partially offsetting import strength in autos and consumer goods. Further policy adjustments, such as additional Section 232 measures or new reciprocal trade talks, could narrow the gap by curbing specific flows, while stronger dollar appreciation or sustained consumer demand would likely sustain or widen it. Upcoming quarterly releases and any shifts in manufacturing employment trends remain key catalysts for repositioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$20,985 Объем
$20,985 Объем
28 фев. 2027 г.
<500 млрд
7%
500–600 млрд
6%
600–700 млрд
5%
700–800 млрд
8%
800–900 млрд
44%
900 млрд – 1 трлн
36%
1–1,1 трлн
9%
1,1 трлн+
5%
$20,985 Объем
$20,985 Объем
28 фев. 2027 г.
<500 млрд
$16,637 Объем
7%
500–600 млрд
$413 Объем
6%
600–700 млрд
$435 Объем
5%
700–800 млрд
$456 Объем
8%
800–900 млрд
$1,008 Объем
44%
900 млрд – 1 трлн
$971 Объем
36%
1–1,1 трлн
$441 Объем
9%
1,1 трлн+
$624 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on the 2026 U.S. trade deficit clusters tightly between 800 billion and 1 trillion dollars, reflecting the 901 billion outcome recorded for 2025 despite broad tariff expansions. Persistent macroeconomic drivers, including the gap between domestic saving and investment, continue to anchor the balance near recent levels even as goods imports have been redirected from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners. Recent monthly data through March 2026 show deficits holding in the 55-70 billion range, with export gains in energy and agriculture partially offsetting import strength in autos and consumer goods. Further policy adjustments, such as additional Section 232 measures or new reciprocal trade talks, could narrow the gap by curbing specific flows, while stronger dollar appreciation or sustained consumer demand would likely sustain or widen it. Upcoming quarterly releases and any shifts in manufacturing employment trends remain key catalysts for repositioning.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Объем
$20,985Дата окончания
28 фев. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on the 2026 U.S. trade deficit clusters tightly between 800 billion and 1 trillion dollars, reflecting the 901 billion outcome recorded for 2025 despite broad tariff expansions. Persistent macroeconomic drivers, including the gap between domestic saving and investment, continue to anchor the balance near recent levels even as goods imports have been redirected from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners. Recent monthly data through March 2026 show deficits holding in the 55-70 billion range, with export gains in energy and agriculture partially offsetting import strength in autos and consumer goods. Further policy adjustments, such as additional Section 232 measures or new reciprocal trade talks, could narrow the gap by curbing specific flows, while stronger dollar appreciation or sustained consumer demand would likely sustain or widen it. Upcoming quarterly releases and any shifts in manufacturing employment trends remain key catalysts for repositioning.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Объем
$20,985Дата окончания
28 фев. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the 2026 U.S. trade deficit clusters tightly between 800 billion and 1 trillion dollars, reflecting the 901 billion outcome recorded for 2025 despite broad tariff expansions. Persistent macroeconomic drivers, including the gap between domestic saving and investment, continue to anchor the balance near recent levels even as goods imports have been redirected from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners. Recent monthly data through March 2026 show deficits holding in the 55-70 billion range, with export gains in energy and agriculture partially offsetting import strength in autos and consumer goods. Further policy adjustments, such as additional Section 232 measures or new reciprocal trade talks, could narrow the gap by curbing specific flows, while stronger dollar appreciation or sustained consumer demand would likely sustain or widen it. Upcoming quarterly releases and any shifts in manufacturing employment trends remain key catalysts for repositioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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