**Ongoing US sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast, including expanded secondary measures and a naval blockade restricting Iranian oil exports, have driven the rial to repeated record lows near or above 2.5 million per USD in late September 2026.** These steps, combined with broader Middle East conflict pressures, have sharply curtailed foreign-currency inflows while domestic inflation remains elevated. Open-market rates reached approximately 2.59 million rials per USD as of early October, reflecting reduced oil revenues and constrained financial channels. Trader consensus pricing the 2.8 million+ band highest aligns with the trajectory of sustained economic isolation and limited near-term diplomatic offsets, such as indirect talks on the Strait of Hormuz. Historical patterns of rapid depreciation during intensified sanctions support the positioning of higher bands as leading outcomes through month-end.