Persistent elevated inflation, with core PCE readings near 3.4% and headline measures around 3.7% amid oil prices above $100 per barrel from geopolitical tensions, import tariffs, and AI-driven spending, has driven the Fed's unanimous September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75%-4.00% range and updated projections showing 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more increase by year-end. Stable labor conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and muted wage growth, have not offset price pressures, aligning trader consensus on the next move as a hike. Key upcoming catalysts include the December FOMC meeting and intervening data releases. Tail risks such as rapid disinflation from resolved energy shocks or sharper labor-market softening could still alter the path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПовышение
>99% вероятность
$27,473 Объем
$27,473 Объем
31 дек. 2028 г.
Повышение
>99% вероятность
$27,473 Объем
$27,473 Объем
31 дек. 2028 г.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent elevated inflation, with core PCE readings near 3.4% and headline measures around 3.7% amid oil prices above $100 per barrel from geopolitical tensions, import tariffs, and AI-driven spending, has driven the Fed's unanimous September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75%-4.00% range and updated projections showing 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more increase by year-end. Stable labor conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and muted wage growth, have not offset price pressures, aligning trader consensus on the next move as a hike. Key upcoming catalysts include the December FOMC meeting and intervening data releases. Tail risks such as rapid disinflation from resolved energy shocks or sharper labor-market softening could still alter the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Объем
$27,473Дата окончания
31 дек. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Повышение
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Повышение
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent elevated inflation, with core PCE readings near 3.4% and headline measures around 3.7% amid oil prices above $100 per barrel from geopolitical tensions, import tariffs, and AI-driven spending, has driven the Fed's unanimous September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75%-4.00% range and updated projections showing 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more increase by year-end. Stable labor conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and muted wage growth, have not offset price pressures, aligning trader consensus on the next move as a hike. Key upcoming catalysts include the December FOMC meeting and intervening data releases. Tail risks such as rapid disinflation from resolved energy shocks or sharper labor-market softening could still alter the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$27,473Дата окончания
31 дек. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Повышение
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Повышение
Persistent elevated inflation, with core PCE readings near 3.4% and headline measures around 3.7% amid oil prices above $100 per barrel from geopolitical tensions, import tariffs, and AI-driven spending, has driven the Fed's unanimous September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75%-4.00% range and updated projections showing 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more increase by year-end. Stable labor conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and muted wage growth, have not offset price pressures, aligning trader consensus on the next move as a hike. Key upcoming catalysts include the December FOMC meeting and intervening data releases. Tail risks such as rapid disinflation from resolved energy shocks or sharper labor-market softening could still alter the path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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