Anthropic's recent frontier releases, including Claude Opus 4.8 in May and Claude Fable 5 on June 9, have driven the market's overwhelming 95% consensus by establishing clear leads on composite intelligence indices, SWE-bench agentic coding, and long-horizon reasoning benchmarks as of mid-June 2026. These models outperform GPT-5.5, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and others in overall capability for complex tasks, reflecting trader emphasis on verified leaderboard performance and practical developer adoption rather than speculation. With resolution imminent, the positioning could shift only if OpenAI or Google delivers an unexpected high-impact update or benchmark revision before month-end that demonstrably surpasses current Claude capabilities across key evaluations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAnthropic 98.9%
OpenAI <1%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
$22,084,732 Объем
$22,084,732 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Anthropic
99%
OpenAI
<1%
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
xAI
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Meta
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 98.9%
OpenAI <1%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
$22,084,732 Объем
$22,084,732 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Anthropic
$2,332,590 Объем
99%
OpenAI
$1,695,716 Объем
<1%
$1,680,008 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$5,143,353 Объем
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,217,061 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$1,048,474 Объем
<1%
Microsoft
$685,215 Объем
<1%
Amazon
$630,686 Объем
<1%
ByteDance
$791,178 Объем
<1%
Alibaba
$1,537,935 Объем
<1%
xAI
$2,146,104 Объем
<1%
Moonshot
$836,512 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$762,992 Объем
<1%
Meta
$1,033,565 Объем
<1%
Baidu
$543,352 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent frontier releases, including Claude Opus 4.8 in May and Claude Fable 5 on June 9, have driven the market's overwhelming 95% consensus by establishing clear leads on composite intelligence indices, SWE-bench agentic coding, and long-horizon reasoning benchmarks as of mid-June 2026. These models outperform GPT-5.5, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and others in overall capability for complex tasks, reflecting trader emphasis on verified leaderboard performance and practical developer adoption rather than speculation. With resolution imminent, the positioning could shift only if OpenAI or Google delivers an unexpected high-impact update or benchmark revision before month-end that demonstrably surpasses current Claude capabilities across key evaluations.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Объем
$22,084,732Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent frontier releases, including Claude Opus 4.8 in May and Claude Fable 5 on June 9, have driven the market's overwhelming 95% consensus by establishing clear leads on composite intelligence indices, SWE-bench agentic coding, and long-horizon reasoning benchmarks as of mid-June 2026. These models outperform GPT-5.5, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and others in overall capability for complex tasks, reflecting trader emphasis on verified leaderboard performance and practical developer adoption rather than speculation. With resolution imminent, the positioning could shift only if OpenAI or Google delivers an unexpected high-impact update or benchmark revision before month-end that demonstrably surpasses current Claude capabilities across key evaluations.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$22,084,732Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's recent frontier releases, including Claude Opus 4.8 in May and Claude Fable 5 on June 9, have driven the market's overwhelming 95% consensus by establishing clear leads on composite intelligence indices, SWE-bench agentic coding, and long-horizon reasoning benchmarks as of mid-June 2026. These models outperform GPT-5.5, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and others in overall capability for complex tasks, reflecting trader emphasis on verified leaderboard performance and practical developer adoption rather than speculation. With resolution imminent, the positioning could shift only if OpenAI or Google delivers an unexpected high-impact update or benchmark revision before month-end that demonstrably surpasses current Claude capabilities across key evaluations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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