Recent model releases and benchmark performances have positioned Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 series as the clear frontrunner for third-best AI model by end of May, with traders assigning it a 61.5% implied probability. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro follows closely at 39% amid competitive multimodal capabilities, while OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants are viewed as locked into the top two spots. Ongoing leaderboards show Claude excelling in coding, long-context reasoning, and instruction following, giving it an edge over Gemini in key metrics. Upcoming developer updates and potential fine-tuning releases from both companies remain key swing factors before month-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWhich company has the third best AI model end of May?
Anthropic 61%
Google 39%
OpenAI 1.7%
xAI <1%
$91,022 Объем
$91,022 Объем

Anthropic
61%

39%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
1%

Baidu
<1%

Meta
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Meituan
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 61%
Google 39%
OpenAI 1.7%
xAI <1%
$91,022 Объем
$91,022 Объем

Anthropic
61%

39%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
1%

Baidu
<1%

Meta
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Meituan
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases and benchmark performances have positioned Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 series as the clear frontrunner for third-best AI model by end of May, with traders assigning it a 61.5% implied probability. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro follows closely at 39% amid competitive multimodal capabilities, while OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants are viewed as locked into the top two spots. Ongoing leaderboards show Claude excelling in coding, long-context reasoning, and instruction following, giving it an edge over Gemini in key metrics. Upcoming developer updates and potential fine-tuning releases from both companies remain key swing factors before month-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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