Toy Story 5's record domestic opening of roughly $160 million in June has positioned it as the frontrunner for 2026's biggest debut, leaving a crowded field of franchise entries vying for second place. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Michael, Project Hail Mary, and upcoming titles such as Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Avengers: Doomsday, Dune: Messiah, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping sit in near-perfect parity on Polymarket, reflecting comparable scale, brand equity, and marketing momentum. Key swing factors include precise release windows, presale trajectories, and competition from other tentpoles, with traders closely tracking box-office tracking reports and historical franchise benchmarks to differentiate long-term prospects.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакой фильм имеет второй по величине начальный уик-энд в 2026 году?
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 50%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 48%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 48%
Dune: Messiah 47%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
50%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
48%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
48%
Dune: Messiah
47%
Avengers: Doomsday
43%
Toy Story 5
14%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 50%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 48%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 48%
Dune: Messiah 47%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
50%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
48%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
48%
Dune: Messiah
47%
Avengers: Doomsday
43%
Toy Story 5
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Открытие рынка: Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Toy Story 5's record domestic opening of roughly $160 million in June has positioned it as the frontrunner for 2026's biggest debut, leaving a crowded field of franchise entries vying for second place. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Michael, Project Hail Mary, and upcoming titles such as Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Avengers: Doomsday, Dune: Messiah, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping sit in near-perfect parity on Polymarket, reflecting comparable scale, brand equity, and marketing momentum. Key swing factors include precise release windows, presale trajectories, and competition from other tentpoles, with traders closely tracking box-office tracking reports and historical franchise benchmarks to differentiate long-term prospects.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы