Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June—the year’s strongest debut at the time and the franchise’s best ever—drives the market’s overwhelming 95% consensus that it will finish as 2026’s third-biggest opening weekend. That figure sits comfortably behind Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million launch and ahead of other major 2026 debuts such as The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and The Odyssey, whose results have already locked in the top tier. Strong family turnout, premium-format play, and Pixar’s brand momentum reinforced the number despite a steep second-weekend drop. Remaining 2026 releases like Avengers: Doomsday or The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping would need outsized, unexpected openings to reorder the ranking, an outcome traders currently price as remote given tracking and historical patterns for those properties.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакой фильм имеет 3-й по величине начальный уик-энд в 2026 году?
Какой фильм имеет 3-й по величине начальный уик-энд в 2026 году?
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 4.0%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 1.0%
$30,740 Объем
$30,740 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 4.0%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 1.0%
$30,740 Объем
$30,740 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Toy Story 5
$19,251 Объем
95%
Dune: Messiah
$2,164 Объем
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
$1,755 Объем
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$1,695 Объем
1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$1,951 Объем
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$2,290 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June—the year’s strongest debut at the time and the franchise’s best ever—drives the market’s overwhelming 95% consensus that it will finish as 2026’s third-biggest opening weekend. That figure sits comfortably behind Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million launch and ahead of other major 2026 debuts such as The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and The Odyssey, whose results have already locked in the top tier. Strong family turnout, premium-format play, and Pixar’s brand momentum reinforced the number despite a steep second-weekend drop. Remaining 2026 releases like Avengers: Doomsday or The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping would need outsized, unexpected openings to reorder the ranking, an outcome traders currently price as remote given tracking and historical patterns for those properties.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Открытие рынка: Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Объем
$30,740Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June—the year’s strongest debut at the time and the franchise’s best ever—drives the market’s overwhelming 95% consensus that it will finish as 2026’s third-biggest opening weekend. That figure sits comfortably behind Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million launch and ahead of other major 2026 debuts such as The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and The Odyssey, whose results have already locked in the top tier. Strong family turnout, premium-format play, and Pixar’s brand momentum reinforced the number despite a steep second-weekend drop. Remaining 2026 releases like Avengers: Doomsday or The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping would need outsized, unexpected openings to reorder the ranking, an outcome traders currently price as remote given tracking and historical patterns for those properties.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Объем
$30,740Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June—the year’s strongest debut at the time and the franchise’s best ever—drives the market’s overwhelming 95% consensus that it will finish as 2026’s third-biggest opening weekend. That figure sits comfortably behind Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million launch and ahead of other major 2026 debuts such as The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and The Odyssey, whose results have already locked in the top tier. Strong family turnout, premium-format play, and Pixar’s brand momentum reinforced the number despite a steep second-weekend drop. Remaining 2026 releases like Avengers: Doomsday or The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping would need outsized, unexpected openings to reorder the ranking, an outcome traders currently price as remote given tracking and historical patterns for those properties.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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