Toy Story 5’s overwhelming market lead reflects the franchise’s established box office track record, broad family audience, and anticipated strong presales heading into its 2026 release window. Traders view these elements as likely to secure a top-three opening weekend finish amid a competitive slate. Other major titles such as Dune: Messiah and Avengers: Doomsday show lower implied probabilities due to differing release timing, genre positioning, and historical performance patterns that rarely place them in the immediate top tier. An upset would require one of the lower-probability films to deliver unprecedented opening numbers or a significant shift in release strategy.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакой фильм имеет 3-й по величине начальный уик-энд в 2026 году?
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 3.9%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.4%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 1.8%
$30,494 Объем
$30,494 Объем
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
2%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 3.9%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.4%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 1.8%
$30,494 Объем
$30,494 Объем
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
2%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Открытие рынка: Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Toy Story 5’s overwhelming market lead reflects the franchise’s established box office track record, broad family audience, and anticipated strong presales heading into its 2026 release window. Traders view these elements as likely to secure a top-three opening weekend finish amid a competitive slate. Other major titles such as Dune: Messiah and Avengers: Doomsday show lower implied probabilities due to differing release timing, genre positioning, and historical performance patterns that rarely place them in the immediate top tier. An upset would require one of the lower-probability films to deliver unprecedented opening numbers or a significant shift in release strategy.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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