**Trader consensus on the "No" outcome at 93% reflects the U.S. Department of Justice's repeated assessments that releases under the 2025 Epstein Files Transparency Act—including hundreds of thousands of pages in December 2025 and over three million more on January 30, 2026—contain no evidence sufficient for new federal or state criminal charges against associates that would result in U.S. incarceration by the December 31, 2026 resolution date.** Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche and other officials have stated that the review is complete, with prior investigations already accounting for Ghislaine Maxwell's 2022 conviction and 20-year sentence on sex-trafficking counts unrelated to these specific disclosures. Legal barriers cited include statutes of limitations on many alleged acts, redactions protecting victims and grand-jury materials, evidentiary gaps, and the absence of a verifiable "client list" or corroboration meeting prosecutorial standards. No U.S. indictments or arrests have followed the releases as of August 2026, despite bipartisan congressional pressure and ongoing civil litigation over redactions. Limited foreign actions, such as the February 2026 UK arrest of former Prince Andrew on document-sharing suspicions (later released on bail), fall outside the market's U.S. jail-or-prison criterion tied directly to the post-December 19, 2025 files. This pattern aligns with historical outcomes where only Epstein and Maxwell faced U.S. criminal accountability despite extensive prior scrutiny.