OpenAI’s rapid iteration on the GPT-5 series drives current trader sentiment, with GPT-5.5 launching in April 2026 after GPT-5.4 in March and GPT-5.3 Codex in February. These releases added native “thinking” reasoning, agentic coding, and expanded context, reflecting a compressed cadence that outpaces historical six-month gaps between major frontier models. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 continues to accelerate OpenAI’s timeline, while internal projects like the March-trained “Spud” model and enterprise-focused Frontier agents signal ongoing capability gains. Traders watch for developer conferences, API deprecations of older versions, and any official GPT-6 hints as potential catalysts that could shift implied probabilities ahead of typical year-end resolution windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$37,279 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
June 30
3%
July 31
45%
September 30
97%
$37,279 Объем
June 30
$17,315 Объем
3%
July 31
$0 Объем
45%
September 30
$14,586 Объем
97%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s rapid iteration on the GPT-5 series drives current trader sentiment, with GPT-5.5 launching in April 2026 after GPT-5.4 in March and GPT-5.3 Codex in February. These releases added native “thinking” reasoning, agentic coding, and expanded context, reflecting a compressed cadence that outpaces historical six-month gaps between major frontier models. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 continues to accelerate OpenAI’s timeline, while internal projects like the March-trained “Spud” model and enterprise-focused Frontier agents signal ongoing capability gains. Traders watch for developer conferences, API deprecations of older versions, and any official GPT-6 hints as potential catalysts that could shift implied probabilities ahead of typical year-end resolution windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ET
Объем
$37,279Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s rapid iteration on the GPT-5 series drives current trader sentiment, with GPT-5.5 launching in April 2026 after GPT-5.4 in March and GPT-5.3 Codex in February. These releases added native “thinking” reasoning, agentic coding, and expanded context, reflecting a compressed cadence that outpaces historical six-month gaps between major frontier models. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 continues to accelerate OpenAI’s timeline, while internal projects like the March-trained “Spud” model and enterprise-focused Frontier agents signal ongoing capability gains. Traders watch for developer conferences, API deprecations of older versions, and any official GPT-6 hints as potential catalysts that could shift implied probabilities ahead of typical year-end resolution windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$37,279Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s rapid iteration on the GPT-5 series drives current trader sentiment, with GPT-5.5 launching in April 2026 after GPT-5.4 in March and GPT-5.3 Codex in February. These releases added native “thinking” reasoning, agentic coding, and expanded context, reflecting a compressed cadence that outpaces historical six-month gaps between major frontier models. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 continues to accelerate OpenAI’s timeline, while internal projects like the March-trained “Spud” model and enterprise-focused Frontier agents signal ongoing capability gains. Traders watch for developer conferences, API deprecations of older versions, and any official GPT-6 hints as potential catalysts that could shift implied probabilities ahead of typical year-end resolution windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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