Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.2% implied probability to SpaceX completing its initial public offering before OpenAI, driven by SpaceX's advanced preparations—including a confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1, accelerated employee share vesting, and an upcoming public prospectus expected next week, followed by a June 8 roadshow targeting a $1.25–$1.75 trillion valuation. OpenAI, by contrast, faces headwinds after missing internal revenue and user growth targets amid competition from Anthropic and Google Gemini, with CFO Sarah Friar questioning a 2026 listing due to massive compute commitments and governance scrutiny around CEO Sam Altman's finances. While SpaceX's Starlink revenue surge underpins momentum, realistic risks include SEC review delays, market volatility, Starship technical setbacks, or an unlikely OpenAI acceleration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли SpaceX или OpenAI IPO первыми?
Будет ли SpaceX или OpenAI IPO первыми?
SpaceX
$73,263 Объем
$73,263 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
SpaceX
$73,263 Объем
$73,263 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.2% implied probability to SpaceX completing its initial public offering before OpenAI, driven by SpaceX's advanced preparations—including a confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1, accelerated employee share vesting, and an upcoming public prospectus expected next week, followed by a June 8 roadshow targeting a $1.25–$1.75 trillion valuation. OpenAI, by contrast, faces headwinds after missing internal revenue and user growth targets amid competition from Anthropic and Google Gemini, with CFO Sarah Friar questioning a 2026 listing due to massive compute commitments and governance scrutiny around CEO Sam Altman's finances. While SpaceX's Starlink revenue surge underpins momentum, realistic risks include SEC review delays, market volatility, Starship technical setbacks, or an unlikely OpenAI acceleration.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
Объем
$73,263Дата окончания
31 дек. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.2% implied probability to SpaceX completing its initial public offering before OpenAI, driven by SpaceX's advanced preparations—including a confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1, accelerated employee share vesting, and an upcoming public prospectus expected next week, followed by a June 8 roadshow targeting a $1.25–$1.75 trillion valuation. OpenAI, by contrast, faces headwinds after missing internal revenue and user growth targets amid competition from Anthropic and Google Gemini, with CFO Sarah Friar questioning a 2026 listing due to massive compute commitments and governance scrutiny around CEO Sam Altman's finances. While SpaceX's Starlink revenue surge underpins momentum, realistic risks include SEC review delays, market volatility, Starship technical setbacks, or an unlikely OpenAI acceleration.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$73,263Дата окончания
31 дек. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.2% implied probability to SpaceX completing its initial public offering before OpenAI, driven by SpaceX's advanced preparations—including a confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1, accelerated employee share vesting, and an upcoming public prospectus expected next week, followed by a June 8 roadshow targeting a $1.25–$1.75 trillion valuation. OpenAI, by contrast, faces headwinds after missing internal revenue and user growth targets amid competition from Anthropic and Google Gemini, with CFO Sarah Friar questioning a 2026 listing due to massive compute commitments and governance scrutiny around CEO Sam Altman's finances. While SpaceX's Starlink revenue surge underpins momentum, realistic risks include SEC review delays, market volatility, Starship technical setbacks, or an unlikely OpenAI acceleration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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