Recent model releases from Chinese labs have tightened the contest for third place behind Anthropic and OpenAI, with trader-implied odds reflecting Alibaba at 43% and Google at 38.5%. Alibaba’s early-August launch of the 2.4-trillion-parameter Qwen3.8-Max immediately climbed text and multimodal leaderboards, while Moonshot’s July Kimi K3 (backed by Alibaba compute resources) posted strong coding and agentic results that narrowed the U.S.–China capability gap. Google’s Gemini updates and Meta’s recent safety disclosures have kept those labs in contention, yet lack the same benchmark momentum. With only two weeks left before resolution, upcoming earnings commentary, new benchmark drops, and any last-minute releases will determine whether Alibaba or Google secures the #3 ranking under current evaluation criteria.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAlibaba 43%
Google 39%
Moonshot 11.0%
Meta 10%
$43,389 ปริมาณ
$43,389 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
Alibaba
43%
39%
Moonshot
11%
Meta
10%
OpenAI
4%
Z.ai
2%
Microsoft
2%
Anthropic
1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Alibaba 43%
Google 39%
Moonshot 11.0%
Meta 10%
$43,389 ปริมาณ
$43,389 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
Alibaba
$9,594 ปริมาณ
43%
$6,526 ปริมาณ
39%
Moonshot
$1,654 ปริมาณ
11%
Meta
$11,548 ปริมาณ
10%
OpenAI
$1,263 ปริมาณ
4%
Z.ai
$958 ปริมาณ
2%
Microsoft
$1,035 ปริมาณ
2%
Anthropic
$1,246 ปริมาณ
1%
Baidu
$898 ปริมาณ
<1%
DeepSeek
$920 ปริมาณ
<1%
SpaceXAI
$851 ปริมาณ
<1%
ByteDance
$856 ปริมาณ
<1%
Meituan
$1,234 ปริมาณ
<1%
Mistral
$539 ปริมาณ
<1%
Amazon
$541 ปริมาณ
<1%
Xiaomi
$774 ปริมาณ
<1%
MiniMax
$474 ปริมาณ
<1%
Thinky
$830 ปริมาณ
<1%
Nvidia
$557 ปริมาณ
<1%
Tencent
$565 ปริมาณ
<1%
StepFun
$527 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases from Chinese labs have tightened the contest for third place behind Anthropic and OpenAI, with trader-implied odds reflecting Alibaba at 43% and Google at 38.5%. Alibaba’s early-August launch of the 2.4-trillion-parameter Qwen3.8-Max immediately climbed text and multimodal leaderboards, while Moonshot’s July Kimi K3 (backed by Alibaba compute resources) posted strong coding and agentic results that narrowed the U.S.–China capability gap. Google’s Gemini updates and Meta’s recent safety disclosures have kept those labs in contention, yet lack the same benchmark momentum. With only two weeks left before resolution, upcoming earnings commentary, new benchmark drops, and any last-minute releases will determine whether Alibaba or Google secures the #3 ranking under current evaluation criteria.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 20, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$43,389วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 20, 2026, 8:54 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases from Chinese labs have tightened the contest for third place behind Anthropic and OpenAI, with trader-implied odds reflecting Alibaba at 43% and Google at 38.5%. Alibaba’s early-August launch of the 2.4-trillion-parameter Qwen3.8-Max immediately climbed text and multimodal leaderboards, while Moonshot’s July Kimi K3 (backed by Alibaba compute resources) posted strong coding and agentic results that narrowed the U.S.–China capability gap. Google’s Gemini updates and Meta’s recent safety disclosures have kept those labs in contention, yet lack the same benchmark momentum. With only two weeks left before resolution, upcoming earnings commentary, new benchmark drops, and any last-minute releases will determine whether Alibaba or Google secures the #3 ranking under current evaluation criteria.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$43,389วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 20, 2026, 8:54 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases from Chinese labs have tightened the contest for third place behind Anthropic and OpenAI, with trader-implied odds reflecting Alibaba at 43% and Google at 38.5%. Alibaba’s early-August launch of the 2.4-trillion-parameter Qwen3.8-Max immediately climbed text and multimodal leaderboards, while Moonshot’s July Kimi K3 (backed by Alibaba compute resources) posted strong coding and agentic results that narrowed the U.S.–China capability gap. Google’s Gemini updates and Meta’s recent safety disclosures have kept those labs in contention, yet lack the same benchmark momentum. With only two weeks left before resolution, upcoming earnings commentary, new benchmark drops, and any last-minute releases will determine whether Alibaba or Google secures the #3 ranking under current evaluation criteria.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย