Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven its 69.3% implied probability for second place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard, as these models post top or near-top Elo scores in human-voted frontend and fullstack tasks, outpacing most rivals on benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch in early September narrowed the gap but left traders assigning it just 27.3%, reflecting persistent edges for Anthropic in UI polish, agentic workflows, and consistent arena voting margins. Lower-priced Chinese models and others sit near 50% or below due to limited verified WebDev Arena data and narrower leads in real-world coding evals. With resolution tied to end-September leaderboard standings, any late model update or voting surge could shift the crowded field.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAnthropic 69.4%
OpenAI 27.6%
Alibaba 2.4%
Moonshot <1%
$76,180 ปริมาณ
$76,180 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
69%
OpenAI
28%
Alibaba
2%
Moonshot
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Tencent
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 69.4%
OpenAI 27.6%
Alibaba 2.4%
Moonshot <1%
$76,180 ปริมาณ
$76,180 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$16,759 ปริมาณ
69%
OpenAI
$10,505 ปริมาณ
28%
Alibaba
$17,542 ปริมาณ
2%
Moonshot
$12,379 ปริมาณ
1%
SpaceXAI
$2,532 ปริมาณ
1%
Tencent
$1,972 ปริมาณ
<1%
Z.ai
$2,092 ปริมาณ
<1%
Meta
$1,709 ปริมาณ
<1%
ByteDance
$3,054 ปริมาณ
<1%
MiniMax
$598 ปริมาณ
<1%
$1,766 ปริมาณ
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,468 ปริมาณ
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,022 ปริมาณ
<1%
Thinky
$617 ปริมาณ
<1%
Poolside
$1,035 ปริมาณ
<1%
Mistral
$1,130 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven its 69.3% implied probability for second place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard, as these models post top or near-top Elo scores in human-voted frontend and fullstack tasks, outpacing most rivals on benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch in early September narrowed the gap but left traders assigning it just 27.3%, reflecting persistent edges for Anthropic in UI polish, agentic workflows, and consistent arena voting margins. Lower-priced Chinese models and others sit near 50% or below due to limited verified WebDev Arena data and narrower leads in real-world coding evals. With resolution tied to end-September leaderboard standings, any late model update or voting surge could shift the crowded field.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$76,180วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labsผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven its 69.3% implied probability for second place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard, as these models post top or near-top Elo scores in human-voted frontend and fullstack tasks, outpacing most rivals on benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch in early September narrowed the gap but left traders assigning it just 27.3%, reflecting persistent edges for Anthropic in UI polish, agentic workflows, and consistent arena voting margins. Lower-priced Chinese models and others sit near 50% or below due to limited verified WebDev Arena data and narrower leads in real-world coding evals. With resolution tied to end-September leaderboard standings, any late model update or voting surge could shift the crowded field.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$76,180วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labsผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven its 69.3% implied probability for second place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard, as these models post top or near-top Elo scores in human-voted frontend and fullstack tasks, outpacing most rivals on benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch in early September narrowed the gap but left traders assigning it just 27.3%, reflecting persistent edges for Anthropic in UI polish, agentic workflows, and consistent arena voting margins. Lower-priced Chinese models and others sit near 50% or below due to limited verified WebDev Arena data and narrower leads in real-world coding evals. With resolution tied to end-September leaderboard standings, any late model update or voting surge could shift the crowded field.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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