Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants in May and June 2026, have driven top LMSYS/LMArena Elo scores into the low-to-mid 1520s by advancing agentic coding, reasoning, and multi-turn performance. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 series sit within 20–30 points, reflecting tight competition among frontier labs. Trader sentiment hinges on whether incremental improvements or a new model drop before September 30 can clear the implied threshold, as historical patterns show rapid Elo gains following major training runs or post-training optimizations, though gains often plateau between major releases.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$46,135 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
1510
35%
1520
17%
1530
10%
1540
10%
1550
7%
$46,135 ปริมาณ
1510
$14,342 ปริมาณ
35%
1520
$8,207 ปริมาณ
17%
1530
$7,794 ปริมาณ
10%
1540
$5,906 ปริมาณ
10%
1550
$9,886 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants in May and June 2026, have driven top LMSYS/LMArena Elo scores into the low-to-mid 1520s by advancing agentic coding, reasoning, and multi-turn performance. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 series sit within 20–30 points, reflecting tight competition among frontier labs. Trader sentiment hinges on whether incremental improvements or a new model drop before September 30 can clear the implied threshold, as historical patterns show rapid Elo gains following major training runs or post-training optimizations, though gains often plateau between major releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$46,135วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants in May and June 2026, have driven top LMSYS/LMArena Elo scores into the low-to-mid 1520s by advancing agentic coding, reasoning, and multi-turn performance. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 series sit within 20–30 points, reflecting tight competition among frontier labs. Trader sentiment hinges on whether incremental improvements or a new model drop before September 30 can clear the implied threshold, as historical patterns show rapid Elo gains following major training runs or post-training optimizations, though gains often plateau between major releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$46,135วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants in May and June 2026, have driven top LMSYS/LMArena Elo scores into the low-to-mid 1520s by advancing agentic coding, reasoning, and multi-turn performance. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 series sit within 20–30 points, reflecting tight competition among frontier labs. Trader sentiment hinges on whether incremental improvements or a new model drop before September 30 can clear the implied threshold, as historical patterns show rapid Elo gains following major training runs or post-training optimizations, though gains often plateau between major releases.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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