Flavio Bolsonaro enters the October 25 runoff as the heavy favorite to finish first in Rio Grande do Sul, backed by a 55.64% first-round share in the state that outpaced his national result. The Liberal Party candidate benefited from a regional right-wing surge across the South, where he carried every state, combined with strong backing among evangelical voters, higher-income groups, and those prioritizing security and fiscal issues. Family members also secured key legislative and gubernatorial wins in the state, reinforcing organizational strength. Lula’s weaker performance in the region and limited coalition expansion further widened the gap. While vote migration from eliminated right-leaning candidates and sustained turnout among core supporters underpin the current trader consensus, late developments such as turnout shifts or unexpected events in the final weeks could still narrow the margin in this battleground state.