Allyson Bezerra of União Brasil advanced from the October 4 first round as the narrow leader with roughly 37% of valid votes, entering an October 25 runoff against Cadu de Lula of the PT after both edged out third-place Álvaro Dias. Pre-election surveys consistently showed Allyson holding double-digit leads in simulated head-to-head matchups, reflecting his strong base in Mossoró from two terms as mayor and broad coalition-building efforts. Cadu has sought national PT support, including recent meetings with President Lula, yet faces a narrower path in the remaining three weeks. The market's heavy weighting toward Allyson aligns with these polling patterns and the structural advantage of an established regional profile heading into the decisive ballot, though late shifts in turnout or endorsements could still narrow the gap before resolution.