Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District, advanced to the October 25 runoff after capturing 49.93% in the October 4 first round, falling 168 votes short of outright victory and leading challenger Leandro Grass (PT) by 15.46 points. Recent Datafolha and Correio/Opinião surveys showed Celina ahead by roughly 19 points in a head-to-head matchup, consistent with her broad leads across most administrative regions. Traders price the largest probability on margins clustered between 10-15 points or in residual “other” categories because the first-round result and polling averages reflect a solid but not overwhelming advantage that could narrow or widen depending on turnout in Grass strongholds like the Plano Piloto and campaign dynamics over the final three weeks. Grass wins remain a lower-probability tail scenario.