China’s official 4.5–5% GDP growth target for 2026, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0% range. Stronger-than-forecast 5% year-on-year expansion in Q1 2026, driven by resilient exports and industrial output, has reinforced this positioning while fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending provide near-term support. Most major forecasts, including those from the IMF at 4.4% and Goldman Sachs at 4.8%, cluster within or adjacent to the leading outcome. Persistent headwinds from weak domestic consumption, property-sector pressures, and elevated energy costs amid geopolitical tensions continue to limit upside risks, keeping the probability of outcomes above 5% or below 4% subdued.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วChina Annual GDP Growth 2026
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0% 70%
5.0–6.0% 28.9%
6.0-7.0% 1.6%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
$570,161 ปริมาณ
$570,161 ปริมาณ
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
70%
5.0–6.0%
29%
6.0-7.0%
2%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
<1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 70%
5.0–6.0% 28.9%
6.0-7.0% 1.6%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
$570,161 ปริมาณ
$570,161 ปริมาณ
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
$44,354 ปริมาณ
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$43,493 ปริมาณ
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$23,773 ปริมาณ
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$46,348 ปริมาณ
1%
4.0–5.0%
$138,542 ปริมาณ
70%
5.0–6.0%
$56,149 ปริมาณ
29%
6.0-7.0%
$51,008 ปริมาณ
2%
7.0–8.0%
$55,733 ปริมาณ
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$23,951 ปริมาณ
<1%
9.0%+
$86,811 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 4.5–5% GDP growth target for 2026, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0% range. Stronger-than-forecast 5% year-on-year expansion in Q1 2026, driven by resilient exports and industrial output, has reinforced this positioning while fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending provide near-term support. Most major forecasts, including those from the IMF at 4.4% and Goldman Sachs at 4.8%, cluster within or adjacent to the leading outcome. Persistent headwinds from weak domestic consumption, property-sector pressures, and elevated energy costs amid geopolitical tensions continue to limit upside risks, keeping the probability of outcomes above 5% or below 4% subdued.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$570,161วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 4.5–5% GDP growth target for 2026, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0% range. Stronger-than-forecast 5% year-on-year expansion in Q1 2026, driven by resilient exports and industrial output, has reinforced this positioning while fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending provide near-term support. Most major forecasts, including those from the IMF at 4.4% and Goldman Sachs at 4.8%, cluster within or adjacent to the leading outcome. Persistent headwinds from weak domestic consumption, property-sector pressures, and elevated energy costs amid geopolitical tensions continue to limit upside risks, keeping the probability of outcomes above 5% or below 4% subdued.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$570,161วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s official 4.5–5% GDP growth target for 2026, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0% range. Stronger-than-forecast 5% year-on-year expansion in Q1 2026, driven by resilient exports and industrial output, has reinforced this positioning while fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending provide near-term support. Most major forecasts, including those from the IMF at 4.4% and Goldman Sachs at 4.8%, cluster within or adjacent to the leading outcome. Persistent headwinds from weak domestic consumption, property-sector pressures, and elevated energy costs amid geopolitical tensions continue to limit upside risks, keeping the probability of outcomes above 5% or below 4% subdued.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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