Polymarket traders price a 96% implied probability of positive US real GDP growth for full-year 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 expansion at a 2.0% annualized rate—a rebound from Q4 2025's sluggish 0.5% pace—bolstered by resilient consumer spending and steady nonfarm payrolls amid a 4.3% unemployment rate. Consensus forecasts from institutions like the CBO (2.2%), Deloitte (2.2%), and S&P Global (2.2%) reinforce this trader sentiment, with skin-in-the-game capital reflecting broad economic stability despite lingering 3.3%-3.8% inflation pressures. Tail risks include a sharp labor market downturn, renewed supply chain disruptions, or geopolitical oil shocks that could derail Q2-Q4 momentum ahead of July's next GDP release and FOMC deliberations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$26,012 ปริมาณ
$26,012 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
$26,012 ปริมาณ
$26,012 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders price a 96% implied probability of positive US real GDP growth for full-year 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 expansion at a 2.0% annualized rate—a rebound from Q4 2025's sluggish 0.5% pace—bolstered by resilient consumer spending and steady nonfarm payrolls amid a 4.3% unemployment rate. Consensus forecasts from institutions like the CBO (2.2%), Deloitte (2.2%), and S&P Global (2.2%) reinforce this trader sentiment, with skin-in-the-game capital reflecting broad economic stability despite lingering 3.3%-3.8% inflation pressures. Tail risks include a sharp labor market downturn, renewed supply chain disruptions, or geopolitical oil shocks that could derail Q2-Q4 momentum ahead of July's next GDP release and FOMC deliberations.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,012วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders price a 96% implied probability of positive US real GDP growth for full-year 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 expansion at a 2.0% annualized rate—a rebound from Q4 2025's sluggish 0.5% pace—bolstered by resilient consumer spending and steady nonfarm payrolls amid a 4.3% unemployment rate. Consensus forecasts from institutions like the CBO (2.2%), Deloitte (2.2%), and S&P Global (2.2%) reinforce this trader sentiment, with skin-in-the-game capital reflecting broad economic stability despite lingering 3.3%-3.8% inflation pressures. Tail risks include a sharp labor market downturn, renewed supply chain disruptions, or geopolitical oil shocks that could derail Q2-Q4 momentum ahead of July's next GDP release and FOMC deliberations.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,012วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 96% implied probability of positive US real GDP growth for full-year 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 expansion at a 2.0% annualized rate—a rebound from Q4 2025's sluggish 0.5% pace—bolstered by resilient consumer spending and steady nonfarm payrolls amid a 4.3% unemployment rate. Consensus forecasts from institutions like the CBO (2.2%), Deloitte (2.2%), and S&P Global (2.2%) reinforce this trader sentiment, with skin-in-the-game capital reflecting broad economic stability despite lingering 3.3%-3.8% inflation pressures. Tail risks include a sharp labor market downturn, renewed supply chain disruptions, or geopolitical oil shocks that could derail Q2-Q4 momentum ahead of July's next GDP release and FOMC deliberations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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