Recent quarterly data have reinforced expectations for UK GDP growth in the 1-2% range for 2026, with Q2 expanding 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (revised up from 0.4%) after 0.6% in Q1, lifting the economy above most G7 peers through the first half. Independent forecasts cluster tightly around 1.1-1.3%, including the OECD’s September upgrade to 1.1%, the Treasury’s September survey average of 1.2%, and OBR’s March projection of 1.1%, reflecting resilient domestic demand and services activity. Market-implied odds align with this consensus, pricing in continued moderate expansion despite headwinds from elevated energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions, softer household real incomes, and the upcoming October budget. Key near-term catalysts include the OBR’s 28 October Economic and Fiscal Outlook and October GDP releases, which could further anchor or shift the 2026 annual outcome within the narrow 1-2% band.