Incumbent Karen Bass leads recent polls at around 25 percent support in a crowded field of 14 candidates for the June 2 nonpartisan primary, with Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman trailing in the low double digits and roughly 40 percent of voters still undecided. Los Angeles city rules require a majority for an outright win to avoid a November runoff, a threshold no serious contender has approached in any published survey. Fundraising momentum for challengers and a recent debate have not produced the consolidation needed to push any candidate near 50 percent, consistent with historical patterns in fragmented Los Angeles mayoral contests. Traders therefore assign just 9 percent probability to an outright first-round victory.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFirst round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?
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Jun 2, 2026
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Jun 2, 2026
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.Incumbent Karen Bass leads recent polls at around 25 percent support in a crowded field of 14 candidates for the June 2 nonpartisan primary, with Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman trailing in the low double digits and roughly 40 percent of voters still undecided. Los Angeles city rules require a majority for an outright win to avoid a November runoff, a threshold no serious contender has approached in any published survey. Fundraising momentum for challengers and a recent debate have not produced the consolidation needed to push any candidate near 50 percent, consistent with historical patterns in fragmented Los Angeles mayoral contests. Traders therefore assign just 9 percent probability to an outright first-round victory.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 15, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$535วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 15, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.Incumbent Karen Bass leads recent polls at around 25 percent support in a crowded field of 14 candidates for the June 2 nonpartisan primary, with Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman trailing in the low double digits and roughly 40 percent of voters still undecided. Los Angeles city rules require a majority for an outright win to avoid a November runoff, a threshold no serious contender has approached in any published survey. Fundraising momentum for challengers and a recent debate have not produced the consolidation needed to push any candidate near 50 percent, consistent with historical patterns in fragmented Los Angeles mayoral contests. Traders therefore assign just 9 percent probability to an outright first-round victory.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$535วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 15, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Karen Bass leads recent polls at around 25 percent support in a crowded field of 14 candidates for the June 2 nonpartisan primary, with Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman trailing in the low double digits and roughly 40 percent of voters still undecided. Los Angeles city rules require a majority for an outright win to avoid a November runoff, a threshold no serious contender has approached in any published survey. Fundraising momentum for challengers and a recent debate have not produced the consolidation needed to push any candidate near 50 percent, consistent with historical patterns in fragmented Los Angeles mayoral contests. Traders therefore assign just 9 percent probability to an outright first-round victory.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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