Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 5-7 point generic ballot lead, aligning with historical patterns where the president's party typically loses House seats in midterms. This environment, combined with a narrow Republican starting majority near 218 seats, dozens of competitive districts, and mid-decade redistricting shifts in states like Texas and California, drives trader expectations of net Republican losses. The elevated probability on bins below 200 seats reflects uncertainty over turnout, candidate recruitment, and economic conditions that could widen or narrow Democratic gains. Key differentiators among outcomes include the final impact of open seats from retirements and the resolution of battleground races rated as toss-ups by nonpartisan analysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190 25%
190-194 15%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
$285,839 ปริมาณ
$285,839 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
25%
190-194
15%
195-199
12%
200-204
12%
205-209
11%
210-214
9%
215-219
7%
220-224
9%
225-229
7%
230+
3%
Below 190 25%
190-194 15%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
$285,839 ปริมาณ
$285,839 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
$32,488 ปริมาณ
25%
190-194
$13,637 ปริมาณ
15%
195-199
$32,609 ปริมาณ
12%
200-204
$24,750 ปริมาณ
12%
205-209
$40,227 ปริมาณ
11%
210-214
$15,669 ปริมาณ
9%
215-219
$11,450 ปริมาณ
7%
220-224
$59,267 ปริมาณ
9%
225-229
$24,767 ปริมาณ
7%
230+
$30,975 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 5-7 point generic ballot lead, aligning with historical patterns where the president's party typically loses House seats in midterms. This environment, combined with a narrow Republican starting majority near 218 seats, dozens of competitive districts, and mid-decade redistricting shifts in states like Texas and California, drives trader expectations of net Republican losses. The elevated probability on bins below 200 seats reflects uncertainty over turnout, candidate recruitment, and economic conditions that could widen or narrow Democratic gains. Key differentiators among outcomes include the final impact of open seats from retirements and the resolution of battleground races rated as toss-ups by nonpartisan analysts.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$285,839วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 5-7 point generic ballot lead, aligning with historical patterns where the president's party typically loses House seats in midterms. This environment, combined with a narrow Republican starting majority near 218 seats, dozens of competitive districts, and mid-decade redistricting shifts in states like Texas and California, drives trader expectations of net Republican losses. The elevated probability on bins below 200 seats reflects uncertainty over turnout, candidate recruitment, and economic conditions that could widen or narrow Democratic gains. Key differentiators among outcomes include the final impact of open seats from retirements and the resolution of battleground races rated as toss-ups by nonpartisan analysts.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$285,839วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 5-7 point generic ballot lead, aligning with historical patterns where the president's party typically loses House seats in midterms. This environment, combined with a narrow Republican starting majority near 218 seats, dozens of competitive districts, and mid-decade redistricting shifts in states like Texas and California, drives trader expectations of net Republican losses. The elevated probability on bins below 200 seats reflects uncertainty over turnout, candidate recruitment, and economic conditions that could widen or narrow Democratic gains. Key differentiators among outcomes include the final impact of open seats from retirements and the resolution of battleground races rated as toss-ups by nonpartisan analysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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