Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, has kept trader-implied odds tightly clustered around the 1.5–2.5% range amid consensus forecasts from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed SPF, and others centering near 2.1–2.2% for the full year. Sticky July CPI at 3.4% and core measures near 2.5% support expectations that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance, while a shift toward investment-led expansion—bolstered by AI-driven productivity—offsets softening consumer spending. Policy factors including 2025 fiscal measures, tariffs, and immigration changes introduce offsetting tailwinds and headwinds, sustaining the close contest among the leading outcomes and highlighting sensitivity to upcoming data releases on inflation and labor market conditions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
2.0–2.5% 32%
1.5–2.0% 28.8%
>2.5% 26%
1.0–1.5% 7.6%
$58,422 ปริมาณ
$58,422 ปริมาณ
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
4%
0.5–1.0%
2%
1.0–1.5%
8%
1.5–2.0%
29%
2.0–2.5%
32%
>2.5%
28%
2.0–2.5% 32%
1.5–2.0% 28.8%
>2.5% 26%
1.0–1.5% 7.6%
$58,422 ปริมาณ
$58,422 ปริมาณ
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
$7,556 ปริมาณ
4%
0.5–1.0%
$17,293 ปริมาณ
2%
1.0–1.5%
$3,825 ปริมาณ
8%
1.5–2.0%
$6,633 ปริมาณ
29%
2.0–2.5%
$7,104 ปริมาณ
32%
>2.5%
$16,011 ปริมาณ
28%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, has kept trader-implied odds tightly clustered around the 1.5–2.5% range amid consensus forecasts from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed SPF, and others centering near 2.1–2.2% for the full year. Sticky July CPI at 3.4% and core measures near 2.5% support expectations that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance, while a shift toward investment-led expansion—bolstered by AI-driven productivity—offsets softening consumer spending. Policy factors including 2025 fiscal measures, tariffs, and immigration changes introduce offsetting tailwinds and headwinds, sustaining the close contest among the leading outcomes and highlighting sensitivity to upcoming data releases on inflation and labor market conditions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$58,422วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, has kept trader-implied odds tightly clustered around the 1.5–2.5% range amid consensus forecasts from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed SPF, and others centering near 2.1–2.2% for the full year. Sticky July CPI at 3.4% and core measures near 2.5% support expectations that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance, while a shift toward investment-led expansion—bolstered by AI-driven productivity—offsets softening consumer spending. Policy factors including 2025 fiscal measures, tariffs, and immigration changes introduce offsetting tailwinds and headwinds, sustaining the close contest among the leading outcomes and highlighting sensitivity to upcoming data releases on inflation and labor market conditions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$58,422วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, has kept trader-implied odds tightly clustered around the 1.5–2.5% range amid consensus forecasts from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed SPF, and others centering near 2.1–2.2% for the full year. Sticky July CPI at 3.4% and core measures near 2.5% support expectations that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance, while a shift toward investment-led expansion—bolstered by AI-driven productivity—offsets softening consumer spending. Policy factors including 2025 fiscal measures, tariffs, and immigration changes introduce offsetting tailwinds and headwinds, sustaining the close contest among the leading outcomes and highlighting sensitivity to upcoming data releases on inflation and labor market conditions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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