Recent political instability in Guinea-Bissau, including the November 2025 military coup that annulled disputed election results and installed a transitional junta, has fragmented support ahead of the December 6, 2026 vote. The August-September 2026 constitutional referendum, approved provisionally by 70 percent, shifts toward a stronger presidential system with expanded executive powers over cabinet and parliament while imposing a five-year continuous residency requirement on candidates. Fernando Dias da Costa's lead reflects his prior strong showing in annulled balloting, yet Embaló and other contenders retain backing tied to established parties, military networks, or regional bases. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over coalition consolidation, opposition participation after the referendum boycott, and any late adjustments to the candidate list or electoral rules before the first-round contest.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วGuinea-Bissau Presidential Election
Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election
Umaro Sissoco Embaló 17.4%
Fernando Dias da Costa 8.0%
José Mário Vaz 2.8%
Honório Augusto Lopes 1.6%
$339,341 ปริมาณ
$339,341 ปริมาณ
Umaro Sissoco Embaló
10%
Fernando Dias da Costa
21%
José Mário Vaz
3%
Honório Augusto Lopes
2%
João de Deus Mendes
2%
Baciro Djá
2%
João Bernardo Vieira
2%
Mário da Silva Júnior
2%
Siga Batista
2%
Mamadu Iaia Djaló
2%
Gabriel Fernando Indi
1%
Herculano Armando Bequinsa
1%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló 17.4%
Fernando Dias da Costa 8.0%
José Mário Vaz 2.8%
Honório Augusto Lopes 1.6%
$339,341 ปริมาณ
$339,341 ปริมาณ
Umaro Sissoco Embaló
10%
Fernando Dias da Costa
21%
José Mário Vaz
3%
Honório Augusto Lopes
2%
João de Deus Mendes
2%
Baciro Djá
2%
João Bernardo Vieira
2%
Mário da Silva Júnior
2%
Siga Batista
2%
Mamadu Iaia Djaló
2%
Gabriel Fernando Indi
1%
Herculano Armando Bequinsa
1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Recent political instability in Guinea-Bissau, including the November 2025 military coup that annulled disputed election results and installed a transitional junta, has fragmented support ahead of the December 6, 2026 vote. The August-September 2026 constitutional referendum, approved provisionally by 70 percent, shifts toward a stronger presidential system with expanded executive powers over cabinet and parliament while imposing a five-year continuous residency requirement on candidates. Fernando Dias da Costa's lead reflects his prior strong showing in annulled balloting, yet Embaló and other contenders retain backing tied to established parties, military networks, or regional bases. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over coalition consolidation, opposition participation after the referendum boycott, and any late adjustments to the candidate list or electoral rules before the first-round contest.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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