The September 2026 constitutional referendum, approved by roughly 70 percent of voters, has reshaped the December 6 presidential contest by expanding executive authority, shrinking parliament, and imposing a five-year continuous residency requirement plus a substantial candidate deposit. These changes, enacted under the military-led transitional government following the November 2025 coup that annulled the prior vote, have fragmented the field among familiar names from the disputed 2025 contest. Fernando Dias da Costa holds the highest implied probability due to his reported edge in the annulled results and opposition backing, while former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló trails amid his ouster and the transitional ban on junta figures. The remaining candidates register minimal trader consensus because of vote splitting, limited recent polling visibility, and uncertainty over which alliances or regional bases can consolidate support ahead of the election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วGuinea-Bissau Presidential Election
Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election
Fernando Dias da Costa 8.0%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló 4.0%
José Mário Vaz 2.8%
Honório Augusto Lopes 1.6%
$339,326 ปริมาณ
$339,326 ปริมาณ
Fernando Dias da Costa
20%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló
10%
José Mário Vaz
3%
Honório Augusto Lopes
2%
João de Deus Mendes
2%
Baciro Djá
2%
João Bernardo Vieira
2%
Mário da Silva Júnior
2%
Siga Batista
2%
Gabriel Fernando Indi
2%
Mamadu Iaia Djaló
2%
Herculano Armando Bequinsa
1%
Fernando Dias da Costa 8.0%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló 4.0%
José Mário Vaz 2.8%
Honório Augusto Lopes 1.6%
$339,326 ปริมาณ
$339,326 ปริมาณ
Fernando Dias da Costa
20%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló
10%
José Mário Vaz
3%
Honório Augusto Lopes
2%
João de Deus Mendes
2%
Baciro Djá
2%
João Bernardo Vieira
2%
Mário da Silva Júnior
2%
Siga Batista
2%
Gabriel Fernando Indi
2%
Mamadu Iaia Djaló
2%
Herculano Armando Bequinsa
1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...The September 2026 constitutional referendum, approved by roughly 70 percent of voters, has reshaped the December 6 presidential contest by expanding executive authority, shrinking parliament, and imposing a five-year continuous residency requirement plus a substantial candidate deposit. These changes, enacted under the military-led transitional government following the November 2025 coup that annulled the prior vote, have fragmented the field among familiar names from the disputed 2025 contest. Fernando Dias da Costa holds the highest implied probability due to his reported edge in the annulled results and opposition backing, while former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló trails amid his ouster and the transitional ban on junta figures. The remaining candidates register minimal trader consensus because of vote splitting, limited recent polling visibility, and uncertainty over which alliances or regional bases can consolidate support ahead of the election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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