Recent polling ahead of Sweden's 13 September 2026 parliamentary election shows the centre-left bloc anchored by the Social Democrats holding a consistent lead of roughly 4–10 points over the incumbent Tidö coalition of Moderates, Christian Democrats and Liberals, which relies on Sweden Democrats support. August surveys from Verian and others project the left-leaning parties near or above 50 percent combined, translating to a parliamentary majority, while the right-wing grouping trails in the low-to-mid 40s. Key factors include voter priorities on crime, migration policy outcomes under the current arrangement, and economic conditions, with no major late-breaking events reported that have narrowed the gap. Coalition negotiations after the vote will determine exact government composition, as Swedish elections rarely produce single-party majorities and cross-bloc deals remain possible though historically difficult.