**Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda’s commanding position in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District stems from the state’s longstanding Democratic dominance, her strong incumbency, and the district’s partisan composition.** Tokuda secured the Democratic nomination with over 91% of the primary vote on August 8, 2026, demonstrating unified party support ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Brenton Awa advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats have consistently prevailed by wide margins, including Kamala Harris’s 17.5-point 2024 victory there. Nonpartisan and forecasting models rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, with projected margins exceeding 50 points. Trader consensus at 95.5% Democratic reflects these fundamentals and the absence of recent events capable of shifting the race into competitive territory. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal, major health event, or national political realignment altering turnout, though such factors remain low-probability given current conditions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHI-02 House Election Winner
HI-02 House Election Winner
$63,531 ปริมาณ
$63,531 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
6%
$63,531 ปริมาณ
$63,531 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$43,095 ปริมาณ
96%
Republican Party
$20,436 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda’s commanding position in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District stems from the state’s longstanding Democratic dominance, her strong incumbency, and the district’s partisan composition.** Tokuda secured the Democratic nomination with over 91% of the primary vote on August 8, 2026, demonstrating unified party support ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Brenton Awa advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats have consistently prevailed by wide margins, including Kamala Harris’s 17.5-point 2024 victory there. Nonpartisan and forecasting models rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, with projected margins exceeding 50 points. Trader consensus at 95.5% Democratic reflects these fundamentals and the absence of recent events capable of shifting the race into competitive territory. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal, major health event, or national political realignment altering turnout, though such factors remain low-probability given current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$63,531วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda’s commanding position in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District stems from the state’s longstanding Democratic dominance, her strong incumbency, and the district’s partisan composition.** Tokuda secured the Democratic nomination with over 91% of the primary vote on August 8, 2026, demonstrating unified party support ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Brenton Awa advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats have consistently prevailed by wide margins, including Kamala Harris’s 17.5-point 2024 victory there. Nonpartisan and forecasting models rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, with projected margins exceeding 50 points. Trader consensus at 95.5% Democratic reflects these fundamentals and the absence of recent events capable of shifting the race into competitive territory. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal, major health event, or national political realignment altering turnout, though such factors remain low-probability given current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$63,531วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda’s commanding position in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District stems from the state’s longstanding Democratic dominance, her strong incumbency, and the district’s partisan composition.** Tokuda secured the Democratic nomination with over 91% of the primary vote on August 8, 2026, demonstrating unified party support ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Brenton Awa advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats have consistently prevailed by wide margins, including Kamala Harris’s 17.5-point 2024 victory there. Nonpartisan and forecasting models rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, with projected margins exceeding 50 points. Trader consensus at 95.5% Democratic reflects these fundamentals and the absence of recent events capable of shifting the race into competitive territory. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal, major health event, or national political realignment altering turnout, though such factors remain low-probability given current conditions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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