Market-implied odds reflect a near-certain trader consensus that Shenzhen’s official high temperature for August 12 will reach exactly 36 °C, consistent with real-time forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration showing peak afternoon readings at that level under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Recent model runs indicate minimal deviation expected from this value, with dew points and wind patterns supporting continued heat without triggering the next threshold. Historical August climatology for the region places typical highs near 33–34 °C, making today’s conditions an above-normal but well-observed event. Resolution hinges on the final 24-hour maximum reported by the Shenzhen station; only an unforecasted late surge or measurement revision could alter the outcome before the market settles.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 12?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 12?
36°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$143,774 ปริมาณ
$143,774 ปริมาณ
Aug 12, 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$143,774 ปริมาณ
$143,774 ปริมาณ
Aug 12, 2026
28°C or below
$564 ปริมาณ
No
29°C
$564 ปริมาณ
No
30°C
$2,405 ปริมาณ
No
31°C
$1,525 ปริมาณ
No
32°C
$1,993 ปริมาณ
No
33°C
$9,639 ปริมาณ
No
34°C
$39,871 ปริมาณ
No
35°C
$47,798 ปริมาณ
No
36°C
$19,756 ปริมาณ
Yes
37°C
$11,002 ปริมาณ
No
38°C or higher
$8,659 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds reflect a near-certain trader consensus that Shenzhen’s official high temperature for August 12 will reach exactly 36 °C, consistent with real-time forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration showing peak afternoon readings at that level under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Recent model runs indicate minimal deviation expected from this value, with dew points and wind patterns supporting continued heat without triggering the next threshold. Historical August climatology for the region places typical highs near 33–34 °C, making today’s conditions an above-normal but well-observed event. Resolution hinges on the final 24-hour maximum reported by the Shenzhen station; only an unforecasted late surge or measurement revision could alter the outcome before the market settles.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$143,774วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds reflect a near-certain trader consensus that Shenzhen’s official high temperature for August 12 will reach exactly 36 °C, consistent with real-time forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration showing peak afternoon readings at that level under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Recent model runs indicate minimal deviation expected from this value, with dew points and wind patterns supporting continued heat without triggering the next threshold. Historical August climatology for the region places typical highs near 33–34 °C, making today’s conditions an above-normal but well-observed event. Resolution hinges on the final 24-hour maximum reported by the Shenzhen station; only an unforecasted late surge or measurement revision could alter the outcome before the market settles.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$143,774วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Market-implied odds reflect a near-certain trader consensus that Shenzhen’s official high temperature for August 12 will reach exactly 36 °C, consistent with real-time forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration showing peak afternoon readings at that level under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Recent model runs indicate minimal deviation expected from this value, with dew points and wind patterns supporting continued heat without triggering the next threshold. Historical August climatology for the region places typical highs near 33–34 °C, making today’s conditions an above-normal but well-observed event. Resolution hinges on the final 24-hour maximum reported by the Shenzhen station; only an unforecasted late surge or measurement revision could alter the outcome before the market settles.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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