Recent Central Weather Administration forecasts and ensemble models point to afternoon highs of 34–35°C in Taipei on July 4, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Subtropical summer conditions, elevated urban heat-island effects, and typical diurnal convection with afternoon showers introduce variability that can suppress peak temperatures by 1–2°C depending on cloud timing and coverage. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across northern Taiwan reinforce trader expectations for values near the upper end of climatological norms (32–33°C), while model spread on precipitation leaves room for 36°C if skies clear earlier. New forecast updates and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables for resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Taipei on July 4?
Highest temperature in Taipei on July 4?
35°C 32%
34°C 28%
36°C 21%
33°C 13%
ใหม่
$12,042 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$12,042 ปริมาณ
Jul 4, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
13%
34°C
28%
35°C
32%
36°C
21%
37°C
7%
38°C or higher
2%
35°C 32%
34°C 28%
36°C 21%
33°C 13%
ใหม่
$12,042 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$12,042 ปริมาณ
Jul 4, 2026
28°C or below
$357 ปริมาณ
<1%
29°C
$553 ปริมาณ
<1%
30°C
$489 ปริมาณ
<1%
31°C
$235 ปริมาณ
1%
32°C
$223 ปริมาณ
2%
33°C
$270 ปริมาณ
13%
34°C
$1,188 ปริมาณ
28%
35°C
$5,169 ปริมาณ
32%
36°C
$2,424 ปริมาณ
21%
37°C
$500 ปริมาณ
7%
38°C or higher
$846 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Central Weather Administration forecasts and ensemble models point to afternoon highs of 34–35°C in Taipei on July 4, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Subtropical summer conditions, elevated urban heat-island effects, and typical diurnal convection with afternoon showers introduce variability that can suppress peak temperatures by 1–2°C depending on cloud timing and coverage. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across northern Taiwan reinforce trader expectations for values near the upper end of climatological norms (32–33°C), while model spread on precipitation leaves room for 36°C if skies clear earlier. New forecast updates and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,042วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Central Weather Administration forecasts and ensemble models point to afternoon highs of 34–35°C in Taipei on July 4, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Subtropical summer conditions, elevated urban heat-island effects, and typical diurnal convection with afternoon showers introduce variability that can suppress peak temperatures by 1–2°C depending on cloud timing and coverage. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across northern Taiwan reinforce trader expectations for values near the upper end of climatological norms (32–33°C), while model spread on precipitation leaves room for 36°C if skies clear earlier. New forecast updates and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,042วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Central Weather Administration forecasts and ensemble models point to afternoon highs of 34–35°C in Taipei on July 4, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Subtropical summer conditions, elevated urban heat-island effects, and typical diurnal convection with afternoon showers introduce variability that can suppress peak temperatures by 1–2°C depending on cloud timing and coverage. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across northern Taiwan reinforce trader expectations for values near the upper end of climatological norms (32–33°C), while model spread on precipitation leaves room for 36°C if skies clear earlier. New forecast updates and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables for resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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