USGS monitoring data confirm three magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes occurred between August 10–16, 2026, anchoring the market’s overwhelming 97.4% implied probability on exactly three. The sequence included a 7.4 event near San José del Palmar, Colombia, on August 10 and a 7.7 shock offshore East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, on August 14, both along active subduction zones where background global rates average 15–20 such events annually. A third qualifying quake registered within the window, aligning with typical weekly clustering rather than anomalous activity. With the period closed, traders view late aftershocks or magnitude revisions as the only realistic paths to four or more, though current observational records make that outcome improbable.