**Trader consensus heavily favors zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide during August 24–30, reflected in the 88.5% implied probability.** USGS monitoring through August 29 shows only moderate activity in the window, with the strongest events reaching M6.0 offshore Timor-Leste on August 24, near Somalia on August 27, and in Japan on August 23—none meeting the threshold. This aligns with a quiet stretch following earlier August events such as the M7.7 Indonesia quake on August 14 and M7.4 Colombia event on August 10. Global seismic rates for M6.5+ quakes average a handful per month but exhibit high week-to-week variability driven by tectonic stress release along subduction zones and fault systems. With one day remaining and no foreshock sequences or elevated aftershock patterns reported by official networks, the low probability of a late-week event underpins the market pricing, though sudden rupture on major plate boundaries remains possible.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?
0 89%
1 11%
3 1.1%
2 1.1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 30, 2026
0
89%
1
11%
2
1%
3
1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
more than 5
<1%
0 89%
1 11%
3 1.1%
2 1.1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 30, 2026
0
$4,384 ปริมาณ
89%
1
$1,413 ปริมาณ
11%
2
$789 ปริมาณ
1%
3
$1,051 ปริมาณ
1%
4
$551 ปริมาณ
<1%
5
$670 ปริมาณ
<1%
more than 5
$830 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader consensus heavily favors zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide during August 24–30, reflected in the 88.5% implied probability.** USGS monitoring through August 29 shows only moderate activity in the window, with the strongest events reaching M6.0 offshore Timor-Leste on August 24, near Somalia on August 27, and in Japan on August 23—none meeting the threshold. This aligns with a quiet stretch following earlier August events such as the M7.7 Indonesia quake on August 14 and M7.4 Colombia event on August 10. Global seismic rates for M6.5+ quakes average a handful per month but exhibit high week-to-week variability driven by tectonic stress release along subduction zones and fault systems. With one day remaining and no foreshock sequences or elevated aftershock patterns reported by official networks, the low probability of a late-week event underpins the market pricing, though sudden rupture on major plate boundaries remains possible.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,687วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader consensus heavily favors zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide during August 24–30, reflected in the 88.5% implied probability.** USGS monitoring through August 29 shows only moderate activity in the window, with the strongest events reaching M6.0 offshore Timor-Leste on August 24, near Somalia on August 27, and in Japan on August 23—none meeting the threshold. This aligns with a quiet stretch following earlier August events such as the M7.7 Indonesia quake on August 14 and M7.4 Colombia event on August 10. Global seismic rates for M6.5+ quakes average a handful per month but exhibit high week-to-week variability driven by tectonic stress release along subduction zones and fault systems. With one day remaining and no foreshock sequences or elevated aftershock patterns reported by official networks, the low probability of a late-week event underpins the market pricing, though sudden rupture on major plate boundaries remains possible.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,687วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide during August 24–30, reflected in the 88.5% implied probability.** USGS monitoring through August 29 shows only moderate activity in the window, with the strongest events reaching M6.0 offshore Timor-Leste on August 24, near Somalia on August 27, and in Japan on August 23—none meeting the threshold. This aligns with a quiet stretch following earlier August events such as the M7.7 Indonesia quake on August 14 and M7.4 Colombia event on August 10. Global seismic rates for M6.5+ quakes average a handful per month but exhibit high week-to-week variability driven by tectonic stress release along subduction zones and fault systems. With one day remaining and no foreshock sequences or elevated aftershock patterns reported by official networks, the low probability of a late-week event underpins the market pricing, though sudden rupture on major plate boundaries remains possible.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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