Recent multiple landfalls—including Maysak in early July, Bavi mid-July, Noul on July 26, and Dolphin on August 9—have elevated the 2026 count to at least four, aligning trader consensus near 7–8 amid a strengthening El Niño that boosts Western Pacific genesis and intensity via warmer sea-surface temperatures. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and Tropical Storm Risk project 24–27 named storms overall with 7–9 China landfalls, above historical averages, though late-season steering patterns, subtropical ridge positioning, and model spread on recurvature introduce uncertainty between 6 and greater-than-8 outcomes. Peak August–October activity remains ahead, with upcoming NHC and CMA updates likely to refine track probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
7 23%
6 22%
5 18%
8 12%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
4%
5
18%
6
19%
7
29%
8
25%
Greater than 8
27%
7 23%
6 22%
5 18%
8 12%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$332 ปริมาณ
4%
5
$2,006 ปริมาณ
18%
6
$572 ปริมาณ
19%
7
$306 ปริมาณ
29%
8
$187 ปริมาณ
25%
Greater than 8
$276 ปริมาณ
27%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Recent multiple landfalls—including Maysak in early July, Bavi mid-July, Noul on July 26, and Dolphin on August 9—have elevated the 2026 count to at least four, aligning trader consensus near 7–8 amid a strengthening El Niño that boosts Western Pacific genesis and intensity via warmer sea-surface temperatures. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and Tropical Storm Risk project 24–27 named storms overall with 7–9 China landfalls, above historical averages, though late-season steering patterns, subtropical ridge positioning, and model spread on recurvature introduce uncertainty between 6 and greater-than-8 outcomes. Peak August–October activity remains ahead, with upcoming NHC and CMA updates likely to refine track probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,680วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Recent multiple landfalls—including Maysak in early July, Bavi mid-July, Noul on July 26, and Dolphin on August 9—have elevated the 2026 count to at least four, aligning trader consensus near 7–8 amid a strengthening El Niño that boosts Western Pacific genesis and intensity via warmer sea-surface temperatures. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and Tropical Storm Risk project 24–27 named storms overall with 7–9 China landfalls, above historical averages, though late-season steering patterns, subtropical ridge positioning, and model spread on recurvature introduce uncertainty between 6 and greater-than-8 outcomes. Peak August–October activity remains ahead, with upcoming NHC and CMA updates likely to refine track probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,680วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent multiple landfalls—including Maysak in early July, Bavi mid-July, Noul on July 26, and Dolphin on August 9—have elevated the 2026 count to at least four, aligning trader consensus near 7–8 amid a strengthening El Niño that boosts Western Pacific genesis and intensity via warmer sea-surface temperatures. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and Tropical Storm Risk project 24–27 named storms overall with 7–9 China landfalls, above historical averages, though late-season steering patterns, subtropical ridge positioning, and model spread on recurvature introduce uncertainty between 6 and greater-than-8 outcomes. Peak August–October activity remains ahead, with upcoming NHC and CMA updates likely to refine track probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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