Ongoing US-mediated talks and a June 2026 trilateral framework have advanced ceasefire implementation, Lebanese Army deployment in southern areas, and Hezbollah disarmament steps, yet full diplomatic normalization remains stalled. Hezbollah has rejected the accord, continued limited military activity, and opposed further concessions ahead of Lebanese parliamentary elections. Recent August negotiations in Rome centered on border security and exchanges rather than state-to-state recognition or treaty commitments. Lebanon’s domestic political constraints, including anti-normalization statutes and sovereignty concerns, further limit progress toward official relations by the December 2026 resolution deadline. Traders cite these persistent security and institutional barriers as sustaining the 92.5% implied probability against the outcome.