Despite a fragile U.S.-mediated ceasefire agreed on April 16, 2026, following March escalations between Israel and Hezbollah, and recent direct talks in Washington—the first in over 30 years—traders price low odds of full diplomatic normalization before 2027 due to Lebanon's explicit rejection of such ties. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam stated on May 6 that Beirut seeks "peace, not normalization," amid ongoing cross-border strikes, ceasefire violations, and Hezbollah's persistent influence, which blocks formal relations like embassies or treaties. While Israel signals openness and talks reconvene soon, domestic Lebanese divisions and security hurdles sustain trader consensus on "No," reflecting historical barriers in coalition dynamics and proxy tensions.