The absence of any verified expulsions of Israeli ambassadors in recent months has supported trader consensus favoring the "No" outcome at 61.5% implied probability. Ongoing regional tensions, including the Gaza conflict and Israel-Hezbollah clashes, have prompted diplomatic friction but no new reciprocal actions since early 2026, when South Africa declared Israel's chargé d'affaires persona non grata. Spain's March permanent recall of its own envoy to Israel marked further strain without triggering equivalent moves against Israeli diplomats. Iran's March offer of Strait of Hormuz transit rights to nations expelling Israeli and U.S. envoys generated attention yet produced no compliance from Arab or European states. With no scheduled summits or votes likely to force abrupt shifts before year-end, the current pricing reflects sustained diplomatic continuity.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
$28,964 ปริมาณ
$28,964 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$28,964 ปริมาณ
$28,964 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The absence of any verified expulsions of Israeli ambassadors in recent months has supported trader consensus favoring the "No" outcome at 61.5% implied probability. Ongoing regional tensions, including the Gaza conflict and Israel-Hezbollah clashes, have prompted diplomatic friction but no new reciprocal actions since early 2026, when South Africa declared Israel's chargé d'affaires persona non grata. Spain's March permanent recall of its own envoy to Israel marked further strain without triggering equivalent moves against Israeli diplomats. Iran's March offer of Strait of Hormuz transit rights to nations expelling Israeli and U.S. envoys generated attention yet produced no compliance from Arab or European states. With no scheduled summits or votes likely to force abrupt shifts before year-end, the current pricing reflects sustained diplomatic continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$28,964วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The absence of any verified expulsions of Israeli ambassadors in recent months has supported trader consensus favoring the "No" outcome at 61.5% implied probability. Ongoing regional tensions, including the Gaza conflict and Israel-Hezbollah clashes, have prompted diplomatic friction but no new reciprocal actions since early 2026, when South Africa declared Israel's chargé d'affaires persona non grata. Spain's March permanent recall of its own envoy to Israel marked further strain without triggering equivalent moves against Israeli diplomats. Iran's March offer of Strait of Hormuz transit rights to nations expelling Israeli and U.S. envoys generated attention yet produced no compliance from Arab or European states. With no scheduled summits or votes likely to force abrupt shifts before year-end, the current pricing reflects sustained diplomatic continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$28,964วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The absence of any verified expulsions of Israeli ambassadors in recent months has supported trader consensus favoring the "No" outcome at 61.5% implied probability. Ongoing regional tensions, including the Gaza conflict and Israel-Hezbollah clashes, have prompted diplomatic friction but no new reciprocal actions since early 2026, when South Africa declared Israel's chargé d'affaires persona non grata. Spain's March permanent recall of its own envoy to Israel marked further strain without triggering equivalent moves against Israeli diplomats. Iran's March offer of Strait of Hormuz transit rights to nations expelling Israeli and U.S. envoys generated attention yet produced no compliance from Arab or European states. With no scheduled summits or votes likely to force abrupt shifts before year-end, the current pricing reflects sustained diplomatic continuity.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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