**Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 20–23 seats, well below its current 32-seat representation, producing the strong market consensus (90.5% implied probability) that the party will lose seats.** Multiple September 2026 surveys from firms including Kantar, Midgam, Lazar, and others place Likud behind or level with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party (averaging ~23–24 seats) while Naftali Bennett’s Together and other opposition lists draw support. The broader Netanyahu-aligned bloc (Likud plus allies such as Shas, UTJ, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism) consistently falls short of or hovers near 61 seats, typically in the low-to-mid 50s range. This positioning reflects sustained voter shifts since the October 2023 Hamas attacks and the extended operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Polling trends show Likud support eroding amid criticism of security outcomes, coalition management, and ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions. New center-right options and competition within the right-wing space have further fragmented Likud’s base. No single late-September development has reversed these patterns; the multi-month downward trajectory in seat projections underpins trader expectations of a net loss for Likud.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว91% โอกาส
$18,302 ปริมาณ
$18,302 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2027
91% โอกาส
$18,302 ปริมาณ
$18,302 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2027
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 20–23 seats, well below its current 32-seat representation, producing the strong market consensus (90.5% implied probability) that the party will lose seats.**
Multiple September 2026 surveys from firms including Kantar, Midgam, Lazar, and others place Likud behind or level with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party (averaging ~23–24 seats) while Naftali Bennett’s Together and other opposition lists draw support. The broader Netanyahu-aligned bloc (Likud plus allies such as Shas, UTJ, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism) consistently falls short of or hovers near 61 seats, typically in the low-to-mid 50s range.
This positioning reflects sustained voter shifts since the October 2023 Hamas attacks and the extended operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Polling trends show Likud support eroding amid criticism of security outcomes, coalition management, and ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions. New center-right options and competition within the right-wing space have further fragmented Likud’s base. No single late-September development has reversed these patterns; the multi-month downward trajectory in seat projections underpins trader expectations of a net loss for Likud.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$18,302วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 20–23 seats, well below its current 32-seat representation, producing the strong market consensus (90.5% implied probability) that the party will lose seats.**
Multiple September 2026 surveys from firms including Kantar, Midgam, Lazar, and others place Likud behind or level with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party (averaging ~23–24 seats) while Naftali Bennett’s Together and other opposition lists draw support. The broader Netanyahu-aligned bloc (Likud plus allies such as Shas, UTJ, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism) consistently falls short of or hovers near 61 seats, typically in the low-to-mid 50s range.
This positioning reflects sustained voter shifts since the October 2023 Hamas attacks and the extended operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Polling trends show Likud support eroding amid criticism of security outcomes, coalition management, and ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions. New center-right options and competition within the right-wing space have further fragmented Likud’s base. No single late-September development has reversed these patterns; the multi-month downward trajectory in seat projections underpins trader expectations of a net loss for Likud.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$18,302วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 20–23 seats, well below its current 32-seat representation, producing the strong market consensus (90.5% implied probability) that the party will lose seats.** Multiple September 2026 surveys from firms including Kantar, Midgam, Lazar, and others place Likud behind or level with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party (averaging ~23–24 seats) while Naftali Bennett’s Together and other opposition lists draw support. The broader Netanyahu-aligned bloc (Likud plus allies such as Shas, UTJ, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism) consistently falls short of or hovers near 61 seats, typically in the low-to-mid 50s range. This positioning reflects sustained voter shifts since the October 2023 Hamas attacks and the extended operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Polling trends show Likud support eroding amid criticism of security outcomes, coalition management, and ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions. New center-right options and competition within the right-wing space have further fragmented Likud’s base. No single late-September development has reversed these patterns; the multi-month downward trajectory in seat projections underpins trader expectations of a net loss for Likud.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย