Recent official forecasts from sources including the Hydrometeorological Center and European models indicate a minimum temperature near 13–14°C for Moscow on September 4, driven by persistent southwesterly flow advecting milder maritime air and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies. This setup has kept overnight lows several degrees above the long-term September average of roughly 9–10°C, with ensemble spreads reflecting modest uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and any localized showers. Traders assign closely matched probabilities across 11–14°C outcomes because small shifts in wind speed or cloud timing could alter the minimum by 1–2°C before resolution, while probabilities decline for extremes below 8°C or above 15°C given the stable synoptic pattern and lack of cold-air intrusion.