Trader consensus assigns near-certainty to a 26°C low in Shanghai on August 13 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and AccuWeather converge on that exact minimum under persistent cloud cover and scattered thundershowers associated with a tropical rainstorm system. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while elevated humidity keeps temperatures from falling further, consistent with mid-August climatology when monsoon moisture lingers. The market-implied probability reflects this tight model agreement and historical clustering of overnight lows between 25–27°C. Clear-sky development or stronger northerly winds that enhance cooling, along with any last-minute forecast revisions, remain the primary variables that could realistically shift the recorded minimum before official observations finalize.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 13?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 13?
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$21,023 ปริมาณ
$21,023 ปริมาณ
Aug 13, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$21,023 ปริมาณ
$21,023 ปริมาณ
Aug 13, 2026
21°C or below
$504 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$614 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$415 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$1,551 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$3,429 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$6,807 ปริมาณ
Yes
27°C
$4,506 ปริมาณ
No
28°C
$1,731 ปริมาณ
No
29°C
$320 ปริมาณ
No
30°C
$445 ปริมาณ
No
31°C or higher
$702 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns near-certainty to a 26°C low in Shanghai on August 13 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and AccuWeather converge on that exact minimum under persistent cloud cover and scattered thundershowers associated with a tropical rainstorm system. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while elevated humidity keeps temperatures from falling further, consistent with mid-August climatology when monsoon moisture lingers. The market-implied probability reflects this tight model agreement and historical clustering of overnight lows between 25–27°C. Clear-sky development or stronger northerly winds that enhance cooling, along with any last-minute forecast revisions, remain the primary variables that could realistically shift the recorded minimum before official observations finalize.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,023วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 13, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns near-certainty to a 26°C low in Shanghai on August 13 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and AccuWeather converge on that exact minimum under persistent cloud cover and scattered thundershowers associated with a tropical rainstorm system. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while elevated humidity keeps temperatures from falling further, consistent with mid-August climatology when monsoon moisture lingers. The market-implied probability reflects this tight model agreement and historical clustering of overnight lows between 25–27°C. Clear-sky development or stronger northerly winds that enhance cooling, along with any last-minute forecast revisions, remain the primary variables that could realistically shift the recorded minimum before official observations finalize.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,023วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 13, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus assigns near-certainty to a 26°C low in Shanghai on August 13 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and AccuWeather converge on that exact minimum under persistent cloud cover and scattered thundershowers associated with a tropical rainstorm system. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while elevated humidity keeps temperatures from falling further, consistent with mid-August climatology when monsoon moisture lingers. The market-implied probability reflects this tight model agreement and historical clustering of overnight lows between 25–27°C. Clear-sky development or stronger northerly winds that enhance cooling, along with any last-minute forecast revisions, remain the primary variables that could realistically shift the recorded minimum before official observations finalize.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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