The solidly Democratic character of Massachusetts’ fourth congressional district, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent strong performance for the party, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5% implied probability. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position after filing deadlines confirmed low-fundraising primary challengers and a substantial cash-on-hand advantage, while the Republican primary entrant and any independent candidate face structural barriers in a seat the Democrat carried by 97% in 2024. Recent polling absence and race ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Democratic further reinforce expectations of continuity. A primary upset that weakens the nominee or a historic national Republican midterm wave could still narrow the margin, though neither development appears imminent ahead of the September primaries and November general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMA-04 House Election Winner
MA-04 House Election Winner
$35,118 ปริมาณ
$35,118 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$35,118 ปริมาณ
$35,118 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$17,239 ปริมาณ
94%
Republican Party
$17,879 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Democratic character of Massachusetts’ fourth congressional district, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent strong performance for the party, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5% implied probability. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position after filing deadlines confirmed low-fundraising primary challengers and a substantial cash-on-hand advantage, while the Republican primary entrant and any independent candidate face structural barriers in a seat the Democrat carried by 97% in 2024. Recent polling absence and race ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Democratic further reinforce expectations of continuity. A primary upset that weakens the nominee or a historic national Republican midterm wave could still narrow the margin, though neither development appears imminent ahead of the September primaries and November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$35,118วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Democratic character of Massachusetts’ fourth congressional district, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent strong performance for the party, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5% implied probability. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position after filing deadlines confirmed low-fundraising primary challengers and a substantial cash-on-hand advantage, while the Republican primary entrant and any independent candidate face structural barriers in a seat the Democrat carried by 97% in 2024. Recent polling absence and race ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Democratic further reinforce expectations of continuity. A primary upset that weakens the nominee or a historic national Republican midterm wave could still narrow the margin, though neither development appears imminent ahead of the September primaries and November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$35,118วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The solidly Democratic character of Massachusetts’ fourth congressional district, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent strong performance for the party, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5% implied probability. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position after filing deadlines confirmed low-fundraising primary challengers and a substantial cash-on-hand advantage, while the Republican primary entrant and any independent candidate face structural barriers in a seat the Democrat carried by 97% in 2024. Recent polling absence and race ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Democratic further reinforce expectations of continuity. A primary upset that weakens the nominee or a historic national Republican midterm wave could still narrow the margin, though neither development appears imminent ahead of the September primaries and November general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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