Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, assumed office in March 2026 after his father’s assassination amid ongoing regional conflict, yet he has maintained an extremely low public profile with no confirmed appearances or direct addresses since taking power. This limited visibility has prompted trader focus on whether health concerns, security risks, or internal power dynamics might prompt his departure from the country before the June 30 resolution deadline. Key factors include the transitional nature of the Assembly of Experts selection process, statements from security elites on decision-making consensus, and the broader context of wartime leadership continuity. Any verified travel for medical care or diplomatic engagement could shift implied probabilities, while continued absence would likely reinforce current trader consensus around stability in place.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$1,150,416 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
May 31
1%
June 30
3%
$1,150,416 ปริมาณ
May 31
$115,398 ปริมาณ
1%
June 30
$63,408 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, assumed office in March 2026 after his father’s assassination amid ongoing regional conflict, yet he has maintained an extremely low public profile with no confirmed appearances or direct addresses since taking power. This limited visibility has prompted trader focus on whether health concerns, security risks, or internal power dynamics might prompt his departure from the country before the June 30 resolution deadline. Key factors include the transitional nature of the Assembly of Experts selection process, statements from security elites on decision-making consensus, and the broader context of wartime leadership continuity. Any verified travel for medical care or diplomatic engagement could shift implied probabilities, while continued absence would likely reinforce current trader consensus around stability in place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,150,416วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, assumed office in March 2026 after his father’s assassination amid ongoing regional conflict, yet he has maintained an extremely low public profile with no confirmed appearances or direct addresses since taking power. This limited visibility has prompted trader focus on whether health concerns, security risks, or internal power dynamics might prompt his departure from the country before the June 30 resolution deadline. Key factors include the transitional nature of the Assembly of Experts selection process, statements from security elites on decision-making consensus, and the broader context of wartime leadership continuity. Any verified travel for medical care or diplomatic engagement could shift implied probabilities, while continued absence would likely reinforce current trader consensus around stability in place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,150,416วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, assumed office in March 2026 after his father’s assassination amid ongoing regional conflict, yet he has maintained an extremely low public profile with no confirmed appearances or direct addresses since taking power. This limited visibility has prompted trader focus on whether health concerns, security risks, or internal power dynamics might prompt his departure from the country before the June 30 resolution deadline. Key factors include the transitional nature of the Assembly of Experts selection process, statements from security elites on decision-making consensus, and the broader context of wartime leadership continuity. Any verified travel for medical care or diplomatic engagement could shift implied probabilities, while continued absence would likely reinforce current trader consensus around stability in place.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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