Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 95.5% for "No" on the Iranian regime falling by June 30, driven by its proven resilience in suppressing the 2025–2026 nationwide protests that peaked in January amid economic crisis and calls for regime change, with security forces including the IRGC remaining loyal despite deadly crackdowns. Recent April reports of preparations for potential renewed unrest have not materialized into widespread upheaval, underscoring structural strengths like institutional entrenchment and lack of unified opposition. With only six weeks remaining, barriers to sudden collapse—such as elite defections or Supreme Leader health crisis—are seen as improbable absent a major catalyst like escalated external military action or total economic meltdown.