The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 US-Israeli military campaign and April 8 ceasefire has anchored trader consensus at near-certainty against collapse by May 31. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC commanders have consolidated authority, using intensified security deployments, internet restrictions, and targeted executions to contain scattered protests and rooftop demonstrations. No credible reports indicate elite defections, military fractures, or nationwide strikes that could trigger rapid regime change within the remaining two weeks. While a sudden ceasefire breakdown, leadership health crisis, or coordinated uprising could theoretically alter the trajectory, current institutional cohesion and opposition disarray make such developments improbable before the deadline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วระบอบการปกครองอิหร่านจะล่มสลายภายในวันที่ 31 พฤษภาคมหรือไม่?
ระบอบการปกครองอิหร่านจะล่มสลายภายในวันที่ 31 พฤษภาคมหรือไม่?
ใช่
$20,713,596 ปริมาณ
$20,713,596 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
ใช่
$20,713,596 ปริมาณ
$20,713,596 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 US-Israeli military campaign and April 8 ceasefire has anchored trader consensus at near-certainty against collapse by May 31. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC commanders have consolidated authority, using intensified security deployments, internet restrictions, and targeted executions to contain scattered protests and rooftop demonstrations. No credible reports indicate elite defections, military fractures, or nationwide strikes that could trigger rapid regime change within the remaining two weeks. While a sudden ceasefire breakdown, leadership health crisis, or coordinated uprising could theoretically alter the trajectory, current institutional cohesion and opposition disarray make such developments improbable before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,713,596วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 US-Israeli military campaign and April 8 ceasefire has anchored trader consensus at near-certainty against collapse by May 31. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC commanders have consolidated authority, using intensified security deployments, internet restrictions, and targeted executions to contain scattered protests and rooftop demonstrations. No credible reports indicate elite defections, military fractures, or nationwide strikes that could trigger rapid regime change within the remaining two weeks. While a sudden ceasefire breakdown, leadership health crisis, or coordinated uprising could theoretically alter the trajectory, current institutional cohesion and opposition disarray make such developments improbable before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,713,596วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 US-Israeli military campaign and April 8 ceasefire has anchored trader consensus at near-certainty against collapse by May 31. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC commanders have consolidated authority, using intensified security deployments, internet restrictions, and targeted executions to contain scattered protests and rooftop demonstrations. No credible reports indicate elite defections, military fractures, or nationwide strikes that could trigger rapid regime change within the remaining two weeks. While a sudden ceasefire breakdown, leadership health crisis, or coordinated uprising could theoretically alter the trajectory, current institutional cohesion and opposition disarray make such developments improbable before the deadline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย