Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat commands 70.5% trader consensus in the NY-13 Democratic primary market ahead of the June 23 vote, buoyed by his substantial fundraising lead—over $1 million cash on hand versus challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier's $217,000 as of late March—and endorsements from the Congressional Black Caucus. Avila Chevalier holds 29% implied probability, fueled by DSA and Justice Democrats backing as a pro-Palestine progressive appealing to the district's left flank in upper Manhattan and the Bronx. A late-March Upswing internal poll for Avila (released April 20) showed Espaillat at 42% and her at 28% among likely voters, with his support softening after messaging, but traders discount it amid no newer surveys and incumbency base rates in safe Democratic primaries. Legal ballot challenges among campaigns surfaced in late April, while early voting looms in early June.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAdriano Espaillat 71%
Darializa Avila Chevalier 29%
Oscar Romero 1.8%
Theo Chino-Tavarez <1%
$22,629 ปริมาณ
$22,629 ปริมาณ
Adriano Espaillat
71%
Darializa Avila Chevalier
29%
Oscar Romero
2%
Theo Chino-Tavarez
<1%
Megan Rodriguez
<1%
Jaleel Amador
<1%
James Felton Keith
<1%
Matt Miller
<1%
Adriano Espaillat 71%
Darializa Avila Chevalier 29%
Oscar Romero 1.8%
Theo Chino-Tavarez <1%
$22,629 ปริมาณ
$22,629 ปริมาณ
Adriano Espaillat
71%
Darializa Avila Chevalier
29%
Oscar Romero
2%
Theo Chino-Tavarez
<1%
Megan Rodriguez
<1%
Jaleel Amador
<1%
James Felton Keith
<1%
Matt Miller
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat commands 70.5% trader consensus in the NY-13 Democratic primary market ahead of the June 23 vote, buoyed by his substantial fundraising lead—over $1 million cash on hand versus challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier's $217,000 as of late March—and endorsements from the Congressional Black Caucus. Avila Chevalier holds 29% implied probability, fueled by DSA and Justice Democrats backing as a pro-Palestine progressive appealing to the district's left flank in upper Manhattan and the Bronx. A late-March Upswing internal poll for Avila (released April 20) showed Espaillat at 42% and her at 28% among likely voters, with his support softening after messaging, but traders discount it amid no newer surveys and incumbency base rates in safe Democratic primaries. Legal ballot challenges among campaigns surfaced in late April, while early voting looms in early June.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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