This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a strong 66.5% implied probability on Polymarket to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, reflecting trader confidence in his proven incumbency advantage and loyal local base despite heavy outside spending against him. Challenger Ed Gallrein, a Trump-endorsed former Navy SEAL, trails at 34.3% amid attacks on Massie's independent voting record, but traders appear skeptical of a fresh Quantus Insights poll released yesterday showing Gallrein ahead 48%-43% with 8% undecided. Early voting begins today through May 16, testing turnout in this heated contest over MAGA credentials, with prior polls favoring Massie and his strong ground game bolstered by out-of-state volunteers. Minor candidates Nicole Lee Ethington and Robert Wells Jr. register negligible support.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a strong 66.5% implied probability on Polymarket to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, reflecting trader confidence in his proven incumbency advantage and loyal local base despite heavy outside spending against him. Challenger Ed Gallrein, a Trump-endorsed former Navy SEAL, trails at 34.3% amid attacks on Massie's independent voting record, but traders appear skeptical of a fresh Quantus Insights poll released yesterday showing Gallrein ahead 48%-43% with 8% undecided. Early voting begins today through May 16, testing turnout in this heated contest over MAGA credentials, with prior polls favoring Massie and his strong ground game bolstered by out-of-state volunteers. Minor candidates Nicole Lee Ethington and Robert Wells Jr. register negligible support.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
May 14 2026
House passes funding package with Thomas Massie as sole Republican no vote
Thomas Massie drops to 61%14%
Thomas Massie was the only Republican to vote against a government funding package, highlighting his maverick stance and possibly affecting his market support negatively in the short term.
May 6 2026
Massie’s market hits 78% after final pre‑primary rally
Thomas Massie rises to 78%4%
A televised rally in Lexington featuring Massie and Trump supporters generated strong media coverage, pushing the market to its peak ahead of the May 19 primary.
May 5 2026
Trump backs primary challenger against Thomas Massie
Thomas Massie drops to 61%14%
President Trump endorsed a primary challenger to Thomas Massie, reflecting intra-party conflict and causing volatility in Massie's market support, which saw a temporary increase followed by a decline.
Apr 22 2026
Rep. Andy Barr announces Senate run, exits House race
Thomas Massie rises to 74%4%
Barr’s decision to run for the Senate left Kentucky’s 4th district open, shifting GOP focus to the KY‑04 primary and giving Massie a clearer path, nudging his price upward.
Mar 10 2026
Trump endorses challenger against Thomas Massie in KY-04 primary
Thomas Massie plunges to 60%15%
President Donald Trump endorsed a primary challenger against incumbent Thomas Massie, signaling a rift due to Massie's defiance on issues like the Epstein files, which caused a significant drop in Massie's market support and reshaped the primary race dynamics.
Feb 19 2026
Justice Department announces discovery of over a million new Epstein documents
Thomas Massie jumps to 76%13%
The DOJ's announcement of uncovering over a million additional Epstein-related documents delayed the release process, intensifying scrutiny. Massie's criticism of DOJ's illegal redactions bolstered his image as a transparency advocate, impacting his market support positively.
Feb 15 2026
DOJ announces further delay in releasing Epstein documents
Thomas Massie drops to 71%5%
The Justice Department’s statement that it needed additional weeks to finish the release revived concerns raised by Massie, causing a modest dip in his price as uncertainty grew.
Feb 1 2026
Justice Department reveals over 5 million Epstein documents under review
Thomas Massie jumps to 76%13%
The DOJ announced a massive review of Epstein-related documents, validating Massie's claims of delayed and incomplete release, keeping the issue in the spotlight and reinforcing his image as a transparency advocate, which affected his market position.
Jan 29 2026
House passes GOP health care bill excluding ACA subsidy extension
Thomas Massie plunges to 63%15%
The House passed a Republican health care package that did not extend Affordable Care Act subsidies, with Thomas Massie as the only Republican voting against it, reflecting his moderate stance and opposition to party leadership, which influenced his market support.
Jan 21 2026
Judge blocks Massie and Khanna from intervening in Epstein files case
Thomas Massie jumps to 78%6%
A judge ruled that Massie and Khanna could not intervene in the criminal case of Ghislaine Maxwell to oversee the release of Epstein files, underscoring the legal challenges faced by Massie in his efforts to push transparency, which kept his name in the news and affected his political standing.
Jan 14 2026
Clintons refuse to testify in House Epstein probe amid contempt threats
Thomas Massie dips to 76%2%
The refusal of Bill and Hillary Clinton to testify in the House Epstein investigation, with Massie involved in the probe, kept the Epstein files issue in the spotlight, sustaining Massie's prominence and market support.
Jan 8 2026
Massie and Khanna demand DOJ release full Epstein files
Thomas Massie rises to 72%4%
Rep. Thomas Massie co‑authored a letter urging a judge to appoint a neutral monitor after the DOJ missed the deadline, raising his profile and boosting his market price.
Jan 8 2026
Massie and Khanna urge court to appoint neutral expert for Epstein files release
Thomas Massie jumps to 78%6%
Massie, alongside Rep. Ro Khanna, requested a judge to appoint a neutral expert to oversee the release of Epstein files, highlighting concerns about DOJ compliance. This action reinforced Massie's image as a fighter for transparency, supporting his market position.
Dec 27 2025
Ed Gallrein’s campaign suffers fundraising shortfall
Ed Gallrein drops to 27%14%
A report on Gallrein’s stalled fundraising efforts led to a noticeable drop in his market price as donors shifted support elsewhere.
Dec 18 2025
Massie co‑authors Epstein Files Transparency Act
Thomas Massie surges to 68%22%
Massie’s legislative role in the Epstein Files Transparency Act raised his national profile, contributing to the early rise in his market price.
Dec 10 2025
Trump backs challenger to Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky primary
Thomas Massie surges to 76%30%
President Trump publicly endorsed a primary opponent to Massie, signaling intra‑party conflict and prompting a surge in Massie's market price as supporters rallied behind him.
Dec 5 2025
Robert Wells Jr. suspends campaign after personal scandal
Robert Wells Jr. plunges to 0%46%
Wells Jr. faced a personal scandal that led him to suspend his campaign, causing his market price to collapse to zero.
Dec 3 2025
Nicole Lee Ethington withdraws from KY‑04 race
Nicole Lee Ethington plunges to 0%46%
Ethington’s early exit from the primary eliminated her from contention, driving her market price to zero.
Dec 1 2025
Thomas Massie co-authors Epstein Files Transparency Act
Thomas Massie surges to 61%15%
Rep. Thomas Massie co-authored legislation mandating the release of Jeffrey Epstein investigative files, raising his profile and support in the KY-04 Republican primary market. This legislative action increased investor confidence in Massie's candidacy, reflected in a price jump from 46% to 61%.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a strong 66.5% implied probability on Polymarket to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, reflecting trader confidence in his proven incumbency advantage and loyal local base despite heavy outside spending against him. Challenger Ed Gallrein, a Trump-endorsed former Navy SEAL, trails at 34.3% amid attacks on Massie's independent voting record, but traders appear skeptical of a fresh Quantus Insights poll released yesterday showing Gallrein ahead 48%-43% with 8% undecided. Early voting begins today through May 16, testing turnout in this heated contest over MAGA credentials, with prior polls favoring Massie and his strong ground game bolstered by out-of-state volunteers. Minor candidates Nicole Lee Ethington and Robert Wells Jr. register negligible support.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a strong 66.5% implied probability on Polymarket to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, reflecting trader confidence in his proven incumbency advantage and loyal local base despite heavy outside spending against him. Challenger Ed Gallrein, a Trump-endorsed former Navy SEAL, trails at 34.3% amid attacks on Massie's independent voting record, but traders appear skeptical of a fresh Quantus Insights poll released yesterday showing Gallrein ahead 48%-43% with 8% undecided. Early voting begins today through May 16, testing turnout in this heated contest over MAGA credentials, with prior polls favoring Massie and his strong ground game bolstered by out-of-state volunteers. Minor candidates Nicole Lee Ethington and Robert Wells Jr. register negligible support.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
May 14 2026
House passes funding package with Thomas Massie as sole Republican no vote
Thomas Massie drops to 61%14%
Thomas Massie was the only Republican to vote against a government funding package, highlighting his maverick stance and possibly affecting his market support negatively in the short term.
May 6 2026
Massie’s market hits 78% after final pre‑primary rally
Thomas Massie rises to 78%4%
A televised rally in Lexington featuring Massie and Trump supporters generated strong media coverage, pushing the market to its peak ahead of the May 19 primary.
May 5 2026
Trump backs primary challenger against Thomas Massie
Thomas Massie drops to 61%14%
President Trump endorsed a primary challenger to Thomas Massie, reflecting intra-party conflict and causing volatility in Massie's market support, which saw a temporary increase followed by a decline.
Apr 22 2026
Rep. Andy Barr announces Senate run, exits House race
Thomas Massie rises to 74%4%
Barr’s decision to run for the Senate left Kentucky’s 4th district open, shifting GOP focus to the KY‑04 primary and giving Massie a clearer path, nudging his price upward.
Mar 10 2026
Trump endorses challenger against Thomas Massie in KY-04 primary
Thomas Massie plunges to 60%15%
President Donald Trump endorsed a primary challenger against incumbent Thomas Massie, signaling a rift due to Massie's defiance on issues like the Epstein files, which caused a significant drop in Massie's market support and reshaped the primary race dynamics.
Feb 19 2026
Justice Department announces discovery of over a million new Epstein documents
Thomas Massie jumps to 76%13%
The DOJ's announcement of uncovering over a million additional Epstein-related documents delayed the release process, intensifying scrutiny. Massie's criticism of DOJ's illegal redactions bolstered his image as a transparency advocate, impacting his market support positively.
Feb 15 2026
DOJ announces further delay in releasing Epstein documents
Thomas Massie drops to 71%5%
The Justice Department’s statement that it needed additional weeks to finish the release revived concerns raised by Massie, causing a modest dip in his price as uncertainty grew.
Feb 1 2026
Justice Department reveals over 5 million Epstein documents under review
Thomas Massie jumps to 76%13%
The DOJ announced a massive review of Epstein-related documents, validating Massie's claims of delayed and incomplete release, keeping the issue in the spotlight and reinforcing his image as a transparency advocate, which affected his market position.
Jan 29 2026
House passes GOP health care bill excluding ACA subsidy extension
Thomas Massie plunges to 63%15%
The House passed a Republican health care package that did not extend Affordable Care Act subsidies, with Thomas Massie as the only Republican voting against it, reflecting his moderate stance and opposition to party leadership, which influenced his market support.
Jan 21 2026
Judge blocks Massie and Khanna from intervening in Epstein files case
Thomas Massie jumps to 78%6%
A judge ruled that Massie and Khanna could not intervene in the criminal case of Ghislaine Maxwell to oversee the release of Epstein files, underscoring the legal challenges faced by Massie in his efforts to push transparency, which kept his name in the news and affected his political standing.
Jan 14 2026
Clintons refuse to testify in House Epstein probe amid contempt threats
Thomas Massie dips to 76%2%
The refusal of Bill and Hillary Clinton to testify in the House Epstein investigation, with Massie involved in the probe, kept the Epstein files issue in the spotlight, sustaining Massie's prominence and market support.
Jan 8 2026
Massie and Khanna demand DOJ release full Epstein files
Thomas Massie rises to 72%4%
Rep. Thomas Massie co‑authored a letter urging a judge to appoint a neutral monitor after the DOJ missed the deadline, raising his profile and boosting his market price.
Jan 8 2026
Massie and Khanna urge court to appoint neutral expert for Epstein files release
Thomas Massie jumps to 78%6%
Massie, alongside Rep. Ro Khanna, requested a judge to appoint a neutral expert to oversee the release of Epstein files, highlighting concerns about DOJ compliance. This action reinforced Massie's image as a fighter for transparency, supporting his market position.
Dec 27 2025
Ed Gallrein’s campaign suffers fundraising shortfall
Ed Gallrein drops to 27%14%
A report on Gallrein’s stalled fundraising efforts led to a noticeable drop in his market price as donors shifted support elsewhere.
Dec 18 2025
Massie co‑authors Epstein Files Transparency Act
Thomas Massie surges to 68%22%
Massie’s legislative role in the Epstein Files Transparency Act raised his national profile, contributing to the early rise in his market price.
Dec 10 2025
Trump backs challenger to Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky primary
Thomas Massie surges to 76%30%
President Trump publicly endorsed a primary opponent to Massie, signaling intra‑party conflict and prompting a surge in Massie's market price as supporters rallied behind him.
Dec 5 2025
Robert Wells Jr. suspends campaign after personal scandal
Robert Wells Jr. plunges to 0%46%
Wells Jr. faced a personal scandal that led him to suspend his campaign, causing his market price to collapse to zero.
Dec 3 2025
Nicole Lee Ethington withdraws from KY‑04 race
Nicole Lee Ethington plunges to 0%46%
Ethington’s early exit from the primary eliminated her from contention, driving her market price to zero.
Dec 1 2025
Thomas Massie co-authors Epstein Files Transparency Act
Thomas Massie surges to 61%15%
Rep. Thomas Massie co-authored legislation mandating the release of Jeffrey Epstein investigative files, raising his profile and support in the KY-04 Republican primary market. This legislative action increased investor confidence in Massie's candidacy, reflected in a price jump from 46% to 61%.
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