Recent polling averages ahead of the November 7 election show the incumbent National-led bloc (National, ACT, NZ First) holding a narrow lead over the Labour-led opposition but frequently falling short of the 62 seats needed under MMP, with the centre-right parties projected around 59 seats in many simulations. The surge in support for the Opportunity Party, now polling 5–9.5% and on track to enter Parliament for the first time, has introduced kingmaker dynamics, as National has explicitly ruled out any arrangement with it. This has boosted scenarios involving Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori, and Opportunity, while the current coalition’s re-election odds have declined amid sluggish economic growth, higher unemployment, and internal coalition tensions. Trader consensus on National + ACT + NZ First as the leading outcome reflects the right bloc’s persistent polling edge and historical precedent, tempered by the fragmented seat math and upcoming campaign events that could shift preferences.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhich coalition will form the next New Zealand government?
Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?
National + ACT + NZF 43%
Labour + Green 20.9%
Labour + Green + Maori 14%
Other 9.3%
$52,439 ปริมาณ
$52,439 ปริมาณ
Nov 6, 2026
Labour
2%
Labour + Green
21%
Labour + Maori
1%
Labour + NZF
<1%
Labour + Green + Maori
14%
Labour + Green + NZF
<1%
Labour + Maori + NZF
<1%
Labour + Green + Maori + NZF
<1%
National
<1%
National + ACT
2%
National + NZF
<1%
National + Maori
1%
National + ACT + NZF
43%
National + ACT + Maori
<1%
National + NZF + Maori
<1%
National + ACT + NZF + Maori
<1%
National + Labour
1%
Other
9%
National + ACT + NZF 43%
Labour + Green 20.9%
Labour + Green + Maori 14%
Other 9.3%
$52,439 ปริมาณ
$52,439 ปริมาณ
Nov 6, 2026
Labour
$1,502 ปริมาณ
2%
Labour + Green
$4,898 ปริมาณ
21%
Labour + Maori
$1,459 ปริมาณ
1%
Labour + NZF
$1,414 ปริมาณ
<1%
Labour + Green + Maori
$5,158 ปริมาณ
14%
Labour + Green + NZF
$1,699 ปริมาณ
<1%
Labour + Maori + NZF
$1,406 ปริมาณ
<1%
Labour + Green + Maori + NZF
$1,978 ปริมาณ
<1%
National
$1,325 ปริมาณ
<1%
National + ACT
$2,205 ปริมาณ
2%
National + NZF
$1,821 ปริมาณ
<1%
National + Maori
$1,400 ปริมาณ
1%
National + ACT + NZF
$8,176 ปริมาณ
43%
National + ACT + Maori
$1,409 ปริมาณ
<1%
National + NZF + Maori
$1,324 ปริมาณ
<1%
National + ACT + NZF + Maori
$1,506 ปริมาณ
<1%
National + Labour
$1,450 ปริมาณ
1%
Other
$12,309 ปริมาณ
9%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.Recent polling averages ahead of the November 7 election show the incumbent National-led bloc (National, ACT, NZ First) holding a narrow lead over the Labour-led opposition but frequently falling short of the 62 seats needed under MMP, with the centre-right parties projected around 59 seats in many simulations. The surge in support for the Opportunity Party, now polling 5–9.5% and on track to enter Parliament for the first time, has introduced kingmaker dynamics, as National has explicitly ruled out any arrangement with it. This has boosted scenarios involving Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori, and Opportunity, while the current coalition’s re-election odds have declined amid sluggish economic growth, higher unemployment, and internal coalition tensions. Trader consensus on National + ACT + NZ First as the leading outcome reflects the right bloc’s persistent polling edge and historical precedent, tempered by the fragmented seat math and upcoming campaign events that could shift preferences.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 4, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$52,439วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 7, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 4, 2026, 4:10 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.Recent polling averages ahead of the November 7 election show the incumbent National-led bloc (National, ACT, NZ First) holding a narrow lead over the Labour-led opposition but frequently falling short of the 62 seats needed under MMP, with the centre-right parties projected around 59 seats in many simulations. The surge in support for the Opportunity Party, now polling 5–9.5% and on track to enter Parliament for the first time, has introduced kingmaker dynamics, as National has explicitly ruled out any arrangement with it. This has boosted scenarios involving Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori, and Opportunity, while the current coalition’s re-election odds have declined amid sluggish economic growth, higher unemployment, and internal coalition tensions. Trader consensus on National + ACT + NZ First as the leading outcome reflects the right bloc’s persistent polling edge and historical precedent, tempered by the fragmented seat math and upcoming campaign events that could shift preferences.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$52,439วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 7, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 4, 2026, 4:10 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages ahead of the November 7 election show the incumbent National-led bloc (National, ACT, NZ First) holding a narrow lead over the Labour-led opposition but frequently falling short of the 62 seats needed under MMP, with the centre-right parties projected around 59 seats in many simulations. The surge in support for the Opportunity Party, now polling 5–9.5% and on track to enter Parliament for the first time, has introduced kingmaker dynamics, as National has explicitly ruled out any arrangement with it. This has boosted scenarios involving Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori, and Opportunity, while the current coalition’s re-election odds have declined amid sluggish economic growth, higher unemployment, and internal coalition tensions. Trader consensus on National + ACT + NZ First as the leading outcome reflects the right bloc’s persistent polling edge and historical precedent, tempered by the fragmented seat math and upcoming campaign events that could shift preferences.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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