Recent polling averages place National at roughly 29-30% party vote, projecting 33-39 seats under MMP as the November 7 election nears, with Labour nearly tied and minor parties like the Greens, ACT, NZ First, and Opportunity fluctuating near or above the 5% threshold. This volatility, combined with National's recent slippage below 30% in several surveys and Opportunity's potential to draw votes that could shift seat allocations, keeps the 30-34 and 35-39 ranges tightly matched in trader pricing. Outcomes hinge on final turnout among swing voters, electorate results that affect overhang, and whether coalition partners hold or gain ground in the remaining weeks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNZ Election: National Party # of seats?
NZ Election: National Party # of seats?
35-39 39%
30-34 38%
40-44 21%
<25 1.4%
$21,332 ปริมาณ
$21,332 ปริมาณ
Nov 6, 2026
<25
7%
25-29
1%
30-34
38%
35-39
39%
40-44
21%
45-49
<1%
50+
<1%
35-39 39%
30-34 38%
40-44 21%
<25 1.4%
$21,332 ปริมาณ
$21,332 ปริมาณ
Nov 6, 2026
<25
$1,231 ปริมาณ
7%
25-29
$928 ปริมาณ
1%
30-34
$6,283 ปริมาณ
38%
35-39
$5,144 ปริมาณ
39%
40-44
$6,067 ปริมาณ
21%
45-49
$811 ปริมาณ
<1%
50+
$869 ปริมาณ
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place National at roughly 29-30% party vote, projecting 33-39 seats under MMP as the November 7 election nears, with Labour nearly tied and minor parties like the Greens, ACT, NZ First, and Opportunity fluctuating near or above the 5% threshold. This volatility, combined with National's recent slippage below 30% in several surveys and Opportunity's potential to draw votes that could shift seat allocations, keeps the 30-34 and 35-39 ranges tightly matched in trader pricing. Outcomes hinge on final turnout among swing voters, electorate results that affect overhang, and whether coalition partners hold or gain ground in the remaining weeks.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,332วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 7, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place National at roughly 29-30% party vote, projecting 33-39 seats under MMP as the November 7 election nears, with Labour nearly tied and minor parties like the Greens, ACT, NZ First, and Opportunity fluctuating near or above the 5% threshold. This volatility, combined with National's recent slippage below 30% in several surveys and Opportunity's potential to draw votes that could shift seat allocations, keeps the 30-34 and 35-39 ranges tightly matched in trader pricing. Outcomes hinge on final turnout among swing voters, electorate results that affect overhang, and whether coalition partners hold or gain ground in the remaining weeks.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,332วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 7, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place National at roughly 29-30% party vote, projecting 33-39 seats under MMP as the November 7 election nears, with Labour nearly tied and minor parties like the Greens, ACT, NZ First, and Opportunity fluctuating near or above the 5% threshold. This volatility, combined with National's recent slippage below 30% in several surveys and Opportunity's potential to draw votes that could shift seat allocations, keeps the 30-34 and 35-39 ranges tightly matched in trader pricing. Outcomes hinge on final turnout among swing voters, electorate results that affect overhang, and whether coalition partners hold or gain ground in the remaining weeks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
Will the Labour Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
35%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
56%
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
51%
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