Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley's bid for a fourth term in solidly Democratic Oregon underpins trader consensus at 92.5% for a Democratic Senate winner, reflecting the state's partisan lean—last electing a Republican senator in 1996—and his 2020 victory margin of nearly 19 points. With ballots mailed April 29 ahead of the May 19 primaries, Merkley faces only a token Democratic challenger, while seven Republicans, including state Sen. Brock Smith, compete in a fragmented field lacking a clear frontrunner. No recent polls challenge this dynamic, but scenarios like a surprise GOP nominee surge, Merkley scandal, health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave could shift odds before November's general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วOregon Senate Election Winner
Oregon Senate Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
93%
Republican
7%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$2,967 ปริมาณ
93%
Republican
$1,177 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley's bid for a fourth term in solidly Democratic Oregon underpins trader consensus at 92.5% for a Democratic Senate winner, reflecting the state's partisan lean—last electing a Republican senator in 1996—and his 2020 victory margin of nearly 19 points. With ballots mailed April 29 ahead of the May 19 primaries, Merkley faces only a token Democratic challenger, while seven Republicans, including state Sen. Brock Smith, compete in a fragmented field lacking a clear frontrunner. No recent polls challenge this dynamic, but scenarios like a surprise GOP nominee surge, Merkley scandal, health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave could shift odds before November's general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,144วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley's bid for a fourth term in solidly Democratic Oregon underpins trader consensus at 92.5% for a Democratic Senate winner, reflecting the state's partisan lean—last electing a Republican senator in 1996—and his 2020 victory margin of nearly 19 points. With ballots mailed April 29 ahead of the May 19 primaries, Merkley faces only a token Democratic challenger, while seven Republicans, including state Sen. Brock Smith, compete in a fragmented field lacking a clear frontrunner. No recent polls challenge this dynamic, but scenarios like a surprise GOP nominee surge, Merkley scandal, health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave could shift odds before November's general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,144วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley's bid for a fourth term in solidly Democratic Oregon underpins trader consensus at 92.5% for a Democratic Senate winner, reflecting the state's partisan lean—last electing a Republican senator in 1996—and his 2020 victory margin of nearly 19 points. With ballots mailed April 29 ahead of the May 19 primaries, Merkley faces only a token Democratic challenger, while seven Republicans, including state Sen. Brock Smith, compete in a fragmented field lacking a clear frontrunner. No recent polls challenge this dynamic, but scenarios like a surprise GOP nominee surge, Merkley scandal, health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave could shift odds before November's general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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