Recent polls from late September place the United Serbia list, led by Aleksandar Vučić, at approximately 48-50 percent support against the Student List at 37 percent, producing an 11-point gap consistent with the elevated pricing on a double-digit United Serbia margin. The 50 percent weighting on another list prevailing and elevated probabilities for narrow margins or a Student List plurality stem from documented poll volatility, the student movement’s sustained mobilization following prolonged anti-corruption protests, and the October 25 snap election timeline. Traders appear to price in risks of turnout shifts, late campaign dynamics, and potential fragmentation among smaller lists that could alter the final plurality or margin.