The substantial $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted through the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, providing ample headroom relative to current borrowing levels near $40 trillion and pushing any potential breach into mid-to-late 2027. Congressional action on prior limit episodes, combined with the Treasury's use of extraordinary measures and the strong institutional and market incentives to prioritize timely interest and principal payments on Treasury securities, underpins the 97% trader consensus against default. Primary drivers include repeated historical resolutions of debt limit standoffs and the absence of structural barriers to further legislative adjustments. Scenarios that could still shift odds include prolonged partisan impasse during 2027 negotiations, sharp rises in defense or interest costs, or unexpected revenue shortfalls that accelerate the X-date.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
3% โอกาส
$16,303 ปริมาณ
$16,303 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
3% โอกาส
$16,303 ปริมาณ
$16,303 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The substantial $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted through the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, providing ample headroom relative to current borrowing levels near $40 trillion and pushing any potential breach into mid-to-late 2027. Congressional action on prior limit episodes, combined with the Treasury's use of extraordinary measures and the strong institutional and market incentives to prioritize timely interest and principal payments on Treasury securities, underpins the 97% trader consensus against default. Primary drivers include repeated historical resolutions of debt limit standoffs and the absence of structural barriers to further legislative adjustments. Scenarios that could still shift odds include prolonged partisan impasse during 2027 negotiations, sharp rises in defense or interest costs, or unexpected revenue shortfalls that accelerate the X-date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$16,303วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The substantial $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted through the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, providing ample headroom relative to current borrowing levels near $40 trillion and pushing any potential breach into mid-to-late 2027. Congressional action on prior limit episodes, combined with the Treasury's use of extraordinary measures and the strong institutional and market incentives to prioritize timely interest and principal payments on Treasury securities, underpins the 97% trader consensus against default. Primary drivers include repeated historical resolutions of debt limit standoffs and the absence of structural barriers to further legislative adjustments. Scenarios that could still shift odds include prolonged partisan impasse during 2027 negotiations, sharp rises in defense or interest costs, or unexpected revenue shortfalls that accelerate the X-date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$16,303วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The substantial $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted through the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, providing ample headroom relative to current borrowing levels near $40 trillion and pushing any potential breach into mid-to-late 2027. Congressional action on prior limit episodes, combined with the Treasury's use of extraordinary measures and the strong institutional and market incentives to prioritize timely interest and principal payments on Treasury securities, underpins the 97% trader consensus against default. Primary drivers include repeated historical resolutions of debt limit standoffs and the absence of structural barriers to further legislative adjustments. Scenarios that could still shift odds include prolonged partisan impasse during 2027 negotiations, sharp rises in defense or interest costs, or unexpected revenue shortfalls that accelerate the X-date.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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