**Dorothy McCabe holds a clear lead in the Waterloo, Ontario mayoral race at 72.5% implied probability, reflecting her incumbency since 2022 and established record on housing development, securing the city's first hospital, and neighbourhood investments.** The October 26 election features a fragmented field including returning challenger Shannon Weber at 25.7%, plus Jeyas Balaskanthan, Jamie Hari, and Jerry Jiang, whose support remains minimal. Recent candidate forums have highlighted clashes over tax increases, city spending, and debate attendance amid illness concerns, yet these have not shifted the consensus away from the sitting mayor. Low probabilities on other named candidates align with limited name recognition and the typical advantage for incumbents in Ontario municipal contests where vote splitting among challengers is common.