The quiet 2026 Atlantic season, featuring only three tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal) and zero hurricanes through mid-August, anchors trader positioning for an early name. NOAA’s August 6 update reinforced a below-normal outlook (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, 0–2 majors) amid factors such as lingering El Niño influences and suppressed activity, reducing the chance of rapid escalation later in the list. With the next name Dolly already approaching and peak-season development windows still weeks away, market-implied odds favor Dolly (41%) or Edouard (24%) becoming the first system to reach 74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale before subsequent storms form or intensify. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center continue issuing routine outlooks with limited model support for near-term genesis.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
Dolly 41%
Edouard 24%
Fay 21%
Isaias 6.9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
2%
Dolly
41%
Edouard
24%
Fay
14%
Gonzalo
5%
Hanna
5%
Isaias
7%
Josephine
5%
Kyle
3%
Leah
3%
Marco
5%
Nana
5%
Omar
5%
Paulette
5%
Rene
5%
Sally
3%
Teddy
5%
Vicky
4%
Wilfred
4%
Other
4%
Dolly 41%
Edouard 24%
Fay 21%
Isaias 6.9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
$1,667 ปริมาณ
2%
Dolly
$383 ปริมาณ
41%
Edouard
$1,073 ปริมาณ
24%
Fay
$514 ปริมาณ
14%
Gonzalo
$472 ปริมาณ
5%
Hanna
$98 ปริมาณ
5%
Isaias
$350 ปริมาณ
7%
Josephine
$55 ปริมาณ
5%
Kyle
$94 ปริมาณ
3%
Leah
$59 ปริมาณ
3%
Marco
$111 ปริมาณ
5%
Nana
$51 ปริมาณ
5%
Omar
$67 ปริมาณ
5%
Paulette
$71 ปริมาณ
5%
Rene
$63 ปริมาณ
5%
Sally
$131 ปริมาณ
3%
Teddy
$63 ปริมาณ
5%
Vicky
$90 ปริมาณ
4%
Wilfred
$118 ปริมาณ
4%
Other
$63 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The quiet 2026 Atlantic season, featuring only three tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal) and zero hurricanes through mid-August, anchors trader positioning for an early name. NOAA’s August 6 update reinforced a below-normal outlook (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, 0–2 majors) amid factors such as lingering El Niño influences and suppressed activity, reducing the chance of rapid escalation later in the list. With the next name Dolly already approaching and peak-season development windows still weeks away, market-implied odds favor Dolly (41%) or Edouard (24%) becoming the first system to reach 74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale before subsequent storms form or intensify. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center continue issuing routine outlooks with limited model support for near-term genesis.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,595วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The quiet 2026 Atlantic season, featuring only three tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal) and zero hurricanes through mid-August, anchors trader positioning for an early name. NOAA’s August 6 update reinforced a below-normal outlook (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, 0–2 majors) amid factors such as lingering El Niño influences and suppressed activity, reducing the chance of rapid escalation later in the list. With the next name Dolly already approaching and peak-season development windows still weeks away, market-implied odds favor Dolly (41%) or Edouard (24%) becoming the first system to reach 74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale before subsequent storms form or intensify. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center continue issuing routine outlooks with limited model support for near-term genesis.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,595วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The quiet 2026 Atlantic season, featuring only three tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal) and zero hurricanes through mid-August, anchors trader positioning for an early name. NOAA’s August 6 update reinforced a below-normal outlook (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, 0–2 majors) amid factors such as lingering El Niño influences and suppressed activity, reducing the chance of rapid escalation later in the list. With the next name Dolly already approaching and peak-season development windows still weeks away, market-implied odds favor Dolly (41%) or Edouard (24%) becoming the first system to reach 74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale before subsequent storms form or intensify. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center continue issuing routine outlooks with limited model support for near-term genesis.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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