Futuro Nazionale, founded in February 2026 by former general and MEP Roberto Vannacci after his split from Lega, has shown steady gains in Italian opinion polls ahead of the next general election due by December 2027. Recent surveys from pollsters including YouTrend, SWG, and Demopolis place the new party at 6–7.6 percent, consistently ahead of Lega at around 5.5–6 percent, with the gap widening through July as Futuro Nazionale draws support on hardline positions regarding immigration, security, and national sovereignty. Lega, led by Matteo Salvini, has experienced relative stagnation or modest declines in the same period. These polling trends, reflecting voter shifts within the broader center-right bloc, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 78.5 percent implied probability for Futuro Nazionale outperforming Lega.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections?
Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections?
79% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 23, 2027
79% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 23, 2027
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.
If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market.
If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.
If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Futuro Nazionale, founded in February 2026 by former general and MEP Roberto Vannacci after his split from Lega, has shown steady gains in Italian opinion polls ahead of the next general election due by December 2027. Recent surveys from pollsters including YouTrend, SWG, and Demopolis place the new party at 6–7.6 percent, consistently ahead of Lega at around 5.5–6 percent, with the gap widening through July as Futuro Nazionale draws support on hardline positions regarding immigration, security, and national sovereignty. Lega, led by Matteo Salvini, has experienced relative stagnation or modest declines in the same period. These polling trends, reflecting voter shifts within the broader center-right bloc, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 78.5 percent implied probability for Futuro Nazionale outperforming Lega.
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.
If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market.
If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.
If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.
If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market.
If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.
If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 9, 2026, 6:01 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,203วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 23, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 9, 2026, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.
If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market.
If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.
If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Futuro Nazionale, founded in February 2026 by former general and MEP Roberto Vannacci after his split from Lega, has shown steady gains in Italian opinion polls ahead of the next general election due by December 2027. Recent surveys from pollsters including YouTrend, SWG, and Demopolis place the new party at 6–7.6 percent, consistently ahead of Lega at around 5.5–6 percent, with the gap widening through July as Futuro Nazionale draws support on hardline positions regarding immigration, security, and national sovereignty. Lega, led by Matteo Salvini, has experienced relative stagnation or modest declines in the same period. These polling trends, reflecting voter shifts within the broader center-right bloc, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 78.5 percent implied probability for Futuro Nazionale outperforming Lega.
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.
If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market.
If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.
If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.
If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market.
If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.
If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,203วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 23, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 9, 2026, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Futuro Nazionale, founded in February 2026 by former general and MEP Roberto Vannacci after his split from Lega, has shown steady gains in Italian opinion polls ahead of the next general election due by December 2027. Recent surveys from pollsters including YouTrend, SWG, and Demopolis place the new party at 6–7.6 percent, consistently ahead of Lega at around 5.5–6 percent, with the gap widening through July as Futuro Nazionale draws support on hardline positions regarding immigration, security, and national sovereignty. Lega, led by Matteo Salvini, has experienced relative stagnation or modest declines in the same period. These polling trends, reflecting voter shifts within the broader center-right bloc, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 78.5 percent implied probability for Futuro Nazionale outperforming Lega.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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